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To: Jong Hyun Yoo who wrote (3313)	9/9/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

Further warnings sounded on flash supplies A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted 11:45 a.m. EST/8:45 a.m., PST, 9/9/99 >By Craig Matsumoto SANTA CLARA, Calif. ( ChipWire/EET) -- Flash-memory devices are essentially sold out for the year, thanks to the overall semiconductor industry recovery and to a widening base of applications that will push flash to nearly a $6 billion market by 2000, according to analyst Alan Niebel of Semico Research Corp. of Phoenix. Flash manufacturers at present are seeing lead times as long as 26 weeks, said Niebel, who presented his findings at Semico's annual forecast session here. "Most of the suppliers are sold out for the rest of the year," he said. "Almost everybody who is producing flash is making money at it, which wasn't the case a couple of years ago." Some manufacturers saw the push for supply coming. Earlier this year, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. began telling some of its flash memory customers to renegotiate their contracts in anticipation of an end to the industry's lengthy down cycle. Customers "laughed" at the idea -- one even accused AMD and Intel Corp. of conspiring to raise prices -- but are now having to scramble to secure flash parts, said Odilio Vargas, strategic marketing manager for AMD's non-volatile memory division. Capacity for flash is stretched more than for other memories because of the increasing uses of flash, Niebel said. The flash market will continue to blossom during the next few years. Flash revenues should reach $4 billion this year and climb to $5.9 billion in 2000, Niebel said. The figures represent a 60% growth rate this year and another 48% of growth next year. Sales of flash memory units will be up as well, from 1.175 billion this year to 1.526 billion in 2000, ultimately climbing to 2.915 billion in 2003, Niebel said. Average selling prices for flash will be on the rise as well, driven by the need for higher densities. In estimates that he called conservative, Niebel projected an average price for flash of $3.41 this year and $3.88 in 2000. Flash is beginning to replace hard drives in some application areas, but its primary applications continue to be cellular phones and PC BIOS, Niebel said. "You also see networking -- communications are large consumers of flash," he said. The popularity of flash memory is particularly telling in its use among new consumer devices, such MP3-format music players, 30 or so of which Niebel expects to see on the market this Christmas. With flash use becoming so widespread, and prices for the parts being relatively stable, some DRAM makers are retooling their fabs to build more flash. But Niebel doesn't expect the flash market to get overwhelmed with excess capacity and plummeting prices. "DRAM is also increasing its ASPs, so it won't be too strong," he said

To: Jong Hyun Yoo who wrote (3313)	9/9/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 5867

Fab capacity shortage looms By Craig Matsumoto EE Times (09/09/99, 11:51 a.m. EDT) SANTA CLARA, Calif. ? Shortages in fab capacity could begin to surface for 0.18-micron and 0.25-micron production during the next few years as a result of capacity cutbacks during the semiconductor industry's last down cycle, according to a new industry report. While overall capacity will actually exceed demand until 2003, supply will outweigh demand at larger line widths, particularly at the 0.35-micron level, said Joanne Itow, an analyst with Semico Research Corp. (Phoenix). "In the overall market it looks fine ? there's plenty of capacity. But it's not necessarily the line width you're looking for," she said. "There's still a lot of 0.8- and 1.0-micron capacity out there," while the industry favors finer line widths. Overall wafer demand should grow 4 percent this year and will grow at an 11 percent clip per year through 2003, said Itow, who gave her projections for semiconductor-industry capacity during Semico's forecast workshop, held here on Wednesday (Sept. 8). A future shortage at smaller line widths would be the endgame to the capacity cuts made in 1997, when it was becoming clear that the semiconductor downturn would be severe. The 0.25-micron level "was the generation they were supposed to be building for," Itow said. Additionally, the recovery in chip sales hasn't led to a glut of fab construction because the strength of foundries is changing the business model of integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), Itow said. "The IDMs are pretty much abandoning the megafab philosophy, and they're planning on utilizing foundries for their needs," she said. Capacity for 0.18-micron manufacturing could be served by 2003 if companies begin ramping or restarting fab projects, Itow said. The more dramatic problems could arise for 0.25-micron designs, however, because companies aren't likely to start up fabs ? now considered $2 billion projects ? for anything but cutting-edge technology, Itow said. Some 0.35-micron fabs could be upgradable to 0.25-micron, but not all of them, she said. At the same time, Semico expects most system-on-a-chip activity to aim for the 0.25-micron level, increasing demand at that level, Semico analyst Rich Wawrzyniak said. "There are all these pressures that will still be put on 0.25-micron capacity in the next year," Itow said. "There might not be as clear cut a solution" as for 0.18-micron, she said, speculating that some companies might even have to consider skipping the 0.25-micron generation and go straight to 0.18-micron parts.

To: Jong Hyun Yoo who wrote (3313)	9/9/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

On the LRCX Employment Picture: Interesting to go to the web site and look through the Employment Opportunities pages. There are 18 job categories(ranging from Business Process Management to Spares & Customer Support) with 90 opportunities offered in total. The top three areas of focus: CMP: 23 positions (23.3%) Manufacturing: 16 positions (17.8%) Materials: 13 Positions (14.4%) These three areas account for 55.5% of the openings. The distribution of these postings also reflects well LRCX's overall focus: Teres and Materials and Manufacturing (which could easily be collapsed into a single category for our purposes). --Duker

To: Jong Hyun Yoo who wrote (3313)	9/12/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Chip exports to top $20 billion Korea's semiconductor exports are expected to exceed $20 billion this year for the first time since 1995 mainly due to the strong price of 64M DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chips. The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said yesterday that it has upgraded this year's goal of chip exports to $20 billion won from $18.5 billion, a figure which the ministry previously set while expecting the price of 64M DRAM chip to average at $7.5. The price of the chip, the current mainstay in the world market, surged to $14.02-15.17 on the U.S. spot market Saturday, continuing its upward streak which started Aug. 30 when it jumped to $9 from $8. The average price of the chip decreased from $10.85 in January to $7.96 in July, but turned upward posting $8.56l in August, far higher than expected. The readjustment of exports goal is based on the ministry's forecast that the price hike will continue for some time. Supply of the chip is falling short of demand that is showing no sign of decreasing amid the PC market boom fueled by computer makers' price-cut strategy and consumers' willingness to buy new PCs in fear about Y2K. In contrast, supply has yet to reach the level of late July when a power blackout damaged Taiwan's chip production. Also behind the raise of the export goal is the belief that the generation shift in semiconductor will be postponed, making 64M DRAM to stay longer in the market. It was widely predicted that 64M DRAM chip will be replaced by the next generation chip, 128M DRAM, as the price of the latter falls below a combined price of two 64M DRAM chips. But current trend defies such forecast. The price of 128M DRAM, which kept falling from around $40 early this year to $17 in late August, made an upturn in September. It was being traded between $23 and $25 on the U.S. spot market Thursday. This is attributable to decreasing supply as chip makers are delaying the expansion of 128M DRAM production to benefit from current strength in the price of 64M DRAM. Analysts predict that the generation shift in semiconductor will take place at the end of the year or early next year. Korea's semiconductor export reached $22.1 in 1995 when the chip market boomed. Updated: 09/13/1999 by Hwang Jang-jin Staff reporter Korea Herald