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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bazmataz who wrote (30503)9/9/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: paul feldman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
99 AOL :
9/9/99

Coverage Initiated by CIBC Wrld Mkts: Strong Buy. eom



To: Bazmataz who wrote (30503)9/9/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Time Traveler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Check this out. Although this is nothing new, compared with other companies, this might explain why AOL is not able to hold on to most of its gains.

cnbc.com

The insiders are selling into any rallies, still.



To: Bazmataz who wrote (30503)9/9/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Respond to of 41369
 
--Bazmataz
On the relative volatilities of AOL, AMZN, EBAY, YHOO and MSFT, volatility is a formal concept, the standard deviation of the daily percentage change annualized, not just guesswork. Rather than guess, I did a little research. I haven't done this exercise for awhile and the relative volatilities of the stocks have changed a bit.

Using the July volatility numbers for each of the stocks, the most recent supplied by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (http://www.cboe.com/tools/historical/vol0799.txt) and the average reading of the VIX, the CBOE's volatility index, to represent the volatility of the general market, a simple ration tells you the volitility of the stock in July relative to the general market. Note that AMZN is almost twice as volatile as AOL, while EBAY and YHOO are about 20 to 30 percent more volatile and AOL is about 50% more volatile than MSFT. I threw in GE for comparison to a stolid company. Based on this volatility, I would expect AMZN to put on a little under 2 points for every 1 AOL point, assuming they were both moving proportionately.

VIX 21.49%

AMZN.......91.010%.........4.24
YHOO......69.576%.........3.24
EBAY.......63.088%.........2.94
AOL.........53.350%..........2.48
MSFT......36.029%..........1.68
GE...........27.344%..........1.27

Best,
--Steve



To: Bazmataz who wrote (30503)9/9/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 41369
 
Bazmataz

And speaking of volatility, I should have also added that the current volatility of AOL is extremely low, much lower than average, which is often a precursor of a move, usually up not down. (This just happened to IBM) I'll even hazard a guess that AOL will be at least between 100 and 105 by options expiration next week. There is also a slight possibility of a breakout above that range.
Best,
--Steve