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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (9346)	9/9/1999 4:22:00 PM
From: Jim O'Brien	Respond to of 10227

All this technical talk has me a bit whoozy....correction, it's not the technical talk, its the rarified air at 70 and above. Go NXTL!!!

To: Arnie Doolittle who wrote (9346)	9/9/1999 4:49:00 PM
From: Bux	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10227

What you forgot to add was the word "existing" to the last sentence. No, I forgot to add "...not compatible with any CDMA air-interface now or ever" That is a fact. There is no way to make an iDEN air interface compatible with any CDMA air interface. My post did make it clear that an iDEN network can be overlayed with a CDMA interface but then it is no longer TDMA based. This is rather disruptive to existing subscribers as their handsets will no longer work on the network. You have bought the GSM propaganda hook, line and sinker. The sooner you understand these issues, the safer your investment dollars will be. ... and then you list a series of doomsday senarios. No, they are not scenarios, they are facts that are based upon the premise that Nextel might purchase new spectrum and start a 3G CDMA network and continue to service iDEN subscribers on existing spectrum. Have you so soon forgotten that at one point Europe threatened to leave QCOM and CDMA out of the 3G standard compatibility issue? Of course I haven't forgotten :-) Do you know why Europe didn't do this? It's because they knew there was no other known technology that could go head to head with CDMA and end up dominant. They knew in the long run GSM couldn't compete and if they continued on their anti-competitive behavior (excluding CDMA from Europe) the U.S. would start applying pressure to open their markets to U.S. technology. So just what point are you trying to prove by reminding us of this childish behavior by European interests? And, more pertinent to this discussion, MOT will have a 3G solution for iDEN. Further, if NXTL gets NW's licenses then MOT will provide an iDEN solution for 1800 mhz. Yes, for any problem there is a solution. You just don't understand what the solution entails. What are Nextel subscribers going to do when the iDEN network is being converted to a CDMA air interface? Do you think they can use the same handsets when the conversion is complete? Do you think they can hand out new handsets before the system is converted to CDMA? Only if they are dual-mode. Again, nobody makes dual mode iDEN/CDMA handsets and if/when they do, they will be bigger, more expensive, and there will be less selection than what the competition offers. A dual-mode iDEN/CDMA handset will have to pay full CDMA royalties to QCOM and any standard iDEN royalties. That is a competitive disadvantage. What makes you think when this happens Nextel customers will continue to be the loyal subjects they are known for? Nextel certainly won't be able to offer much in the way of incentives because replacing the iDEN air interface with CDMA won't be cheap. Nextel's only hope for paying off their current infrastructure is to hope that the DC feature is compelling enough to retain their subscribers while CDMA carriers with superior coverage, roaming, and handsets are slashing prices. I'd like to think DC is so important that customers will give up the advantages of other networks (primarily cost and coverage and the gap is widening) just to retain this feature. Intuition tells me that next quarter you will see churn start to increase at an accelerating rate quarter over quarter. Nextel will cut prices again to try to stop the exodus but the accountants will tell them there is a point at which prices cannot be cut further. Now that's a doomsday scenario. Let me add that CDMA currently does not have a push-to-talk answer to iDEN's DC. Until they do, they are locked out of NXTL's market. Even when they do have an answer, CDMA telcos will have to spend gazillion$ to install. CDMA will probably never have direct connect for technical difficulty reasons and efficient use of bandwidth. Currently and probably forever, when a CDMA user wants to talk to another CDMA user they can speed dial them using three keystrokes. I am not aware of any CDMA operators that offer conference calling but it would not surprise me if they did. This could be implemented at the switching equipment for minimal cost. Feel free to disagree with me now but remember to return to this thread several years from now and admit that you were wrong. Nextel might survive, I just don't think shareholders will be rewarded too heavily over the next three years in comparison to Sprint and Airtouch. I will check back and see how this progresses. As far as my statements regarding compatibility, I stand by them. They are facts, not opinions or scenarios. On CDMA's capacity advantage, it's not a factor for another 3-5 years, if then. I believe that MOT is currently working on a 6:1 cellular solution for iDEN which would give NXTL a theoretical voice capacity that would carry them to 2010. 3 to 5 years? :-) I think you have grossly under-estimated wireless growth! Do you have any figures available that show Nextel will not start running into capacity constraints within a year? The 6:1 capacity "solution" that you refer to is called "sectorization" which means directional antennas are used to try to isolate users depending upon their bearing to each base station. The gains realized by this will not even be close to 6:1 for numerous technical reasons. Actually, sectorization will benefit CDMA networks even more due to the flexibility of rake receivers and their superior ability to deal with the kinds of problems sectorization introduces. As long as NXTL has the DC advantage, they will be the ONLY digital wireless telco with a differentiating feature. Except for the DC advantage, the battle for wireless customers will be won by the telco with the best marketing effort. Ummm, what about CDMA's faster data connections? Currently it's at 14.4Kbps but a standard on the near horizon promises to boost that to speeds above the fastest copper speeds and later, even faster. Somehow I think this will prove to be more important than "direct connection." As far as marketing effort, I hope you realize there are two things that are most important to subscribers, They are cost and coverage. Hmmm, I didn't hear DC mentioned there. Bux P.S. Somehow I get the feeling that I am making you believe in Nextel with even more fervor. Oh well, makes little difference to me.