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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (9478)	9/9/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

Gary, In the last CC, McGinn actually stated that revenues were expected to flatten out more evenly (by design perhaps) over the entire year rather than 1st quarter carrying a disproportionate % of the total revenues. McGinn guided analysts to reduce the revenue and earnings expectations for the quarter while at the same time increasing estimates for the remaining 3 quarters and for the year as a whole. He also said that there would be no material effect to earnings from Y2K issues (limites to a day or 2 of sales). Brian

To: Gary105 who wrote (9478)	9/9/1999 9:42:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

In every year LU has been an independent company, the December quarter (actually 1Q FY) has been the slowest year over year growth quarter. This is intentional, as in early years analysts were critical of a seasonal pattern that had 35% of revenues and 60% of earnings in a single quarter. Now there are 3 basic factors driving the continual shift away from December. 1) Sales force compensation - In 1998, incentives were shifted to the fiscal rather than calendar year. 2) Software release schedules - Software releases were previously been concentrated in the Dec. quarter. LU is in the process of moving to a staggered release schedule. 3) Changing industry buying patterns - CLECs, ISPs and alternative LD providers do not buy according to traditional RBOC patterns. Neither do international service providers. And increasingly even incumbent telcos are forced to buy based on customer demand rather than year end scheduling. In fact, current sell side estimates for 1Q revenues range from $11B to $11.5B, a 12-17% increase YoY, which would be the best December growth in LU's 4 year history. Total FY00 revenue growth is projected at about 19% with better than 25% EPS growth.