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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akmike who wrote (15599)	9/9/1999 10:50:00 PM
From: David Semoreson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42804

MRVC still has great potential, but the safety net is gone. Pre-August98 we could rely on the earnings for lower price support; later we relied on book/cash value ... now its all "potential" and relative valuations to JNPR/RBAK/etc. Its natural for us long-timers to have a little fear of heights <G> I was trying to explain to a friend today why MRVC @ $6 was a "perfect setup" ... book value, lots of cash, technical prowess, fast growing markets, award-winning products and misunderstood. Extremely low risk + high potential. Now can anybody on this thread find another one? (Rewards offered!) ** David

To: akmike who wrote (15599)	9/10/1999 12:07:00 AM
From: Bridge Player	Respond to of 42804

<< even though we are comfortable with the price level we may have discomfort with the percentage of our assets that this one equity has become. I am there, and enjoying the discomfort! >> Does anyone think that having more than 100% of my account equity in MRVC might be too much? BP

To: akmike who wrote (15599)	9/10/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42804

<<Mike-value is subjective and comfort levels will thus vary>> Good point. Think of all the different situations our shareholders are now in. Here are a few: The people who: 1) bought higher, never sold, never bought more lower, and are just now getting even after more than 1 year. 2) bought higher, took all or some of their losses, bought more lower (in varying percentages) and are now sitting on large gains. 3) People who were just eyeing the stock when the bottom fell out, saw the value and made initial purchases low, and bought more on the way up. Some of those are still accumulating and some are just holding on to larger and larger gains. 4) People just learning about MRVC right now. Some will stay for the long haul, others will exit when their price target (gain or loss) hits. 5) The real old timers - pre the 1996 splits. These people have ridiculously low average costs (like $2 or below). Some like Dan Spillane, rode the stock to the $30s and exited high and bought fancy cars with the cash. Others either only reduced their holdings or rode back down where they may or may not have increased their holdings, and are now riding back up. Some of these are now bitter and are liquidating as the price rises. 6) Traders of various kinds, buying and selling for small gains. 7) "Mo" players, piling on board when MRVC is hot and exiting quickly when it cools. For these and other types, now is a good time to review where we stand and the reasons for holding or selling. We have now passed a 4-bagger off the 1998 low of $5 1/16. We are approaching a 4-bagger just since April. How high can we go? Take a look at these charts. The first is HLIT over a 100 week period. Notice how long it sat low before it "caught on". Look at what it has done since last October. $7 to $129 in less than a year is pretty spectacular (and I owned it too, but missed the big part of it's move). techstocks.com The next two are HLIT and MRVC statistics. Look at the P/S ratios. HLIT now is almost exactly 7 times higher. A year ago they were both very low and similar. Raising MRVC to the same P/S ratio gives a price of $157! Can someone tell me why a P/S ratio similar to HLIT or others in the industry is not a reasonable expectation, as MRVC sheds it's "baggage" and is viewed as a "player" in the Optical networking market? biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Now look at the EPS numbers. HLIT is at $0.33 while MRVC shows as ($0.06), both on a trailing 12 months basis. Now look ahead. What will it take for MRVC to post "just" $0.50 next year? I say "just" because I think it will be much higher. This will be harder because they keep boosting their R&D lines and SG&A and adding startups, etc. Let's try a simpler question. What would it have taken for MRVC to have earned $0.13 in Q2? Even keeping GMs at 35% (they are trending up) and doing a SWAG on taxes we get a revenue of somewhere between $86 and $90 million - call it $88 million. That is an extra $15 million per quarter (less if we allow higher GMs). In Y2K that is 40-50 Linux routers per quarter considered alone. But there will also be revenue growth in existing products, China, revenue from Redex, Wireless traffic Driver, Fiber Driver, AcceleRouter, MetroFusion and Aranea plus OA and HC growth too. I think that MRVC could approach $400 million in revenue next year with even "moderate" success of these new products. And if they follow through on their promise of alliances and partnerships they will have more than moderate success. Also, apart from revenue and EPS growth, we have lots of potential good news out there that can boost us: Redex announcement New startup announcement New OA CEO IPO for all or part of OA 2nd round funding for the startups - and the cash infusions that would come in with that. Alliances or partnerships - as promised. Actual sales and contracts for the new products Continued interest by the "MO" players The bottom line is that everyone has to make their own risk/reward decisions. IMO, this stock is just starting to roll, and could go much higher as these things all play out. Taking some profits is human nature, but exiting just when a stock is starting it's move can be a mistake too - HLIT again (Oooh if I had just held longer)!

To: akmike who wrote (15599)	9/10/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: Greg h2o	Respond to of 42804

mike, <<As Greg and others mentioned earlier, some have loaded the truck on MRVC at much lower levels and even though we are comfortable with the price level we may have discomfort with the percentage of our assets that this one equity has become. Mike, couldn't have said it better myself... i have a long position, and 2 separate sets of calls. part of the calls i have been trading. i sold my trading calls as i felt my position had gotten too large (i bought these trading calls back when we had the dip to around 16 1/2). with the stock 6 points from where i had purchased these calls, i sold. i still own my long positions, as do my clients (have yet to sell share 1 for my clients accounts). of course, my clients don't have a position large enough to be construed as not prudent--at least in most cases <GG>. as i told a client yesterday, i think we can easily run to the mid 30's-- given proper execution of the possible spin-off/ sale and product roll-out. i still believe the relative value of MRV compared to other companies in this industry is astounding. greg

To: akmike who wrote (15599)	9/11/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: candleLight	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

<<even though we are comfortable with the price level we may have discomfort with the percentage of our assets that this one equity has become. >> Mike-I feel comfortable with the price level at 20s. I do have large position of MRVC bought at 10.44 and 14 that is about 75% of my cash portfolio this year. I think I feel more comfortable with fewer than 5 stocks in a portfolio. I will hold MRVC all the way up to ... but not down. If MRVC became 95% of my portfolio, I would consider selling. But not at 20s. Let's have a dream.