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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grok who wrote (29115)	9/10/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Dave B	Respond to of 93625

KZ, Anything else you'd like me to think about? Sure... [Compaq] may not intro any Rambus products this year Compaq has already announced that their first RDRAM-based product will come out in Q1 2000. We discussed that on the thread already and I believe the final "consensus" was that Compaq wasn't going to be able to get much RDRAM anyway in Q4 with Dell taking 2/3s of the production and probably Sony taking most of the rest. No new news. I think of Dell who always follows Intel and wonder why they are not switching 100% to Rambus instead of only 50% Typical FUDspeak. One more time, loudly, for the anti-Intel crowd -- RDRAM WILL NOT APPEAR IN MID-RANGE AND LOW-END COMPUTERS UNTIL LATE 2000, ACCORDING TO EVERY ROADMAP EVER POSTED BY, AND EVERY STATEMENT EVER MADE BY, INTEL. Did you get that guys? This is a 2-3 year migration story. No one ever said the transition was going to happen Q4 1999 and then it would be "all RDRAM all the time". It's disingenuous to wonder why it's not 100% immediately. Also, I haven't seen any system manufacturer announce that DDR or VC DRAM will be installed in 50% of their systems. Can you name a single one? So now we come to Sony. If you looked closely at the Sony PlayStation II and talked to its architects and designers like I have you'd soon come to the conclusion that they just threw everything that sounded whizzy into it with no regard for cost or risk. Fine, let the gamers go buy the new Nintendo game. It appears extremely likely that it has RDRAM inside as well. No problemo. I'm pretty agnostic at this point on whether people go with Sony or Nintendo. BTW, I don't follow the video games market that closely (though with two 4 year olds I expect that will change soon). From what I remember, it seems to me that most of the new game consoles were introduced at price points around $299, and sold well enough to come down the production cost curve. I could be wrong about that price point, but I believe that the serious gamers will pay the introductory price for the new machines, as they've always done. I'll be happy to keep thinking of more stuff for you to think about. It will mostly revolve around the support for RDRAM by all the market leading companies; from the leading DRAM manufacturers, to the leading chipset manufacturer, to the leading PC manufacturers. Dave