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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim S who wrote (9276)	9/10/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Dayuhan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Lots of questions. 1. Do the Indonesian Generals want to stop the violence? 2. Assuming they do want to, can they? 3. The UN won't commit, not with China and the Soviet Union, neither of which want a precedent for secession, on the Council. How much will the US, Australia, etc. be willing to do unilaterally? 4. Will anyone be willing to intervene if Indonesia announces that it will resist? And most of all.... When it comes down to a cost/benefit calculation, is anybody going to think it's worth it? Lots of others, actually...

To: Jim S who wrote (9276)	9/10/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Bosco	Respond to of 9980

Hi Jim & all - my take is that Indonesia is always a military state! If the military junta - or General Wiranto, who is instrumental in getting Sarharto to step down - overtly seizes power, it may actually weaken its position. Think about it, there is some parallel between Indonesia domestic politics and that of the Serb, which uses a minority, or minorities, like the ethnic Chinese, Catholics and E Timorese, to bind the mindless national pride of the predominately Islamic Indonesians. However, when the military declares its own supremacy, the general population may realize that the "hunting dog's days are numbered if there is nothing more to hunt!" Thus, whatever happens to Habibie, I tend to believe there will always be a puppet to make Indonesia look like a civilian run democratic government. On a separate track, another wild card is the considerable [petro] interest in the region best, Bosco