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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (25505)	9/10/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Heinz - Shorting is tough right now since despite the nasty looking FA and internals, it is easy to get nervous watching stocks go straight up on no news, or else for no reason. I read today ( it may have been on this thread even) that one of the items that pushed the PPI down ex energy and food, was decreased prices on PCs. On this note, DELL was up almost 3 points most of the day. Hard to stay short when there is no reasoning in the market. Jorj - Well, I have tapered off the Meds and thought I was alert enough but You are right, I will be fully sober Monday. <g> Haim - I usually do my best trading within 2 weeks of expiration as the whipsaws allow for good scalps as long as you are in rythym. I like the OEX because I don't have to worry about news moving a stock hard one way or the other and blind siding me and the moves are often quick for profits and loss and the formations usually keep me on the right side. What I did wrong today in hind sight that I just thought of a few minutes ago was discount MAX Pain. Yes the market wanted to rally on the PPI news for no reason but and it was a big but, the OEX MAx pain needs to stay around the 710 area so they are doing all they can to hold it back until they can unwind. I don't know how long they can do so since the mania seems to be taking control but we will see. The nuts were up strong as were most of the darling stocks. I knew I was in trouble though when GE started to slide. As I continue to analyze the trade, when I sold half off, I should have sold the whole thing, then bought back in half when I was buying to average down. This would have still ended in a loss but I would have cut my losses substantially and since I had a lower cost basis onthe second trade, I would have been willing to cut earlier at the first sign of there not being a closing rally and would have sold slightly earlier the second time thus saving cash even more. When at the point of trying to salvage a huge loss, I know I tend to clam up and try to squeeze a few more 1/16s out rather than just getting out. Small losses are easier to eat. No data yet to analyze so Monday is still not known, They did appear to be rallying after the close so the bias may be up Monday depending on what happens to the Dollar Sunday night. Good Luck, Lee