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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cathedra who wrote (25519)	9/10/1999 7:04:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom, i happen to think so too...i am only wavering as to the size of the pullback. the market will also have to contend with the soon upcoming trade balance data - a guaranteed shocker this time around. the falling dollar will have pushed up the deficit beyond expectations again, as the consumer buying and credit binge has continued unabated. the import cost increase that was reported earlier this week is testament to the dollar effect. also the signs that serious Y2K stock-piling has commenced are everywhere, not least in the sudden jump in DRAM prices. industrial metals have begun to move seriously higher, which suggests that this has now begun to affect raw materials as well. the demand pull that's originating from a recovering Asia is mostly felt in the form of accelerating price rises in the pipeline, it will take a while before exports pick up to the extent as to dent the trade figures. my bet is that this time around, the worrying will start before the data are released and could worsen once they are. there's still the matter that cycles seem to suggest that the market should continue to blow off into late September, but as usual, opinions on this cycle stuff differ greatly. it is apparently less of a science than i assumed judging from the variety of cycle advice out there... regards, hb