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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (3138)	9/11/1999 8:24:00 AM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Albertson on AOL: - (Today's Barrons) A few weeks ago, we offered, more or less in passing, some demurs on the outlook for America Online. Comes now Doug Kass, chief cook and bottle washer of a hedge fund called Seabreeze Partners, to weigh in with some reservations of his own. Doug, we should note, has been short the stock since it sold some 50 points higher than its current price of around 96. We should also note that's one of the reasons his portfolio is up 60% or so this year. Among the negatives he cites are: the recent sale of four million shares by insiders; the fact that PC manufacturers are offering sharply discounted computers to buyers who sign up for Internet access; slowing in the rate of the company's subscriber growth (in the quarter ended June 30, such growth in the U.S. failed to exceed expectations for the first time in years, and such growth abroad was decidedly nothing to write home about); and increasing evidence of price competition. This last -- gathering price pressures -- Doug views as especially significant. For it was America Online's ability to boost prices back in April 1998 that in no small measure provided the impetus for the stock's remarkable sevenfold appreciation over the next 12 months. Pure and simple, America Online has lost the power to control the price of its product. The cost of Internet usage has begun to decline, and the trend threatens (if you're America Online) or promises (if you're a consumer) to accelerate. Among the rivals likely to cut Internet charges are such formidable ones as American Telephone. What's more, Doug conjectures, there's a very good possibility of Microsoft offering free access. Rick Belluzo, its new online chief, has already hinted at his willingness to lose money to gain market share. Doug also sees broadband access as putting fresh pressure on America Online's pricing. High-speed Internet connection, he predicts, will become inexorably more important to Web users, the way e-mail and chat rooms became more important. That will pose a problem for the company because it can't hope to get its customers to shell out $20-$25 more each month, atop the $21.95 they're already paying. The company, in his view, will have no alternative but to roll back the '98 price increase. And that will be especially bad news since it gets something like 75% of its revenues and 20% of its profits from subscribers' access fees. In the fullness of time, Doug expects the price of America Online stock to be cut in half.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (3138)	9/11/1999 10:39:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11568

status 9/13 I posted this earlier but looks like it was lost try again closed KWIC 9/2 ron 5000 8.5000 42500 9/7 10.5000 52500 10000 -15 9985 23% NITE var ron 1500 37.1252 55688 9/7 36.1250 54188 -1500 -15 -1515 -3% SBC 8/30 larry 1000 50.7500 50750 9/9 45.7500 45750 -5000 -15 -5015 -10% Z PORTFOLIO Stock DATE SPONS. # Cost Cost $ Date Close Close $ G/L Comm Net G/L % Sold AOL 7/28 ron 500 96.000 48000 96.313 48156 156 -15 141 0% ATHM 8/27 sue 500 40.750 20375 39.813 19906 -469 -15 -484 -2% BXM 8/11 sue 1000 20.250 20250 19.500 19500 -750 -15 -765 -4% GUMM var dan 6000 11.1980 67188 13.3125 79875 12687 -45 12642 19% HLIT 8/31 ron -500 126.0000 -63000 135.5000 -67750 -4750 -15 -4765 -8% HLIT 9/7 ron -500 141.0000 -70500 135.5000 -67750 2750 -15 2735 4% IATV 5/26 dan 1500 12.7500 19125 14.4375 21656 2531 -15 2516 13% MIR 7/30 ron 5000 14.0625 70313 12.5625 62813 -7500 -15 -7515 -11% MSFT 6/9 larry 1000 82.2500 82250 95.0000 95000 12750 -15 12735 15% NITE var ron 1000 37.1252 37125 33.6250 33625 -3500 -15 -3515 -9% NITE 9/2 ron 500 31.0000 15500 33.6250 16813 1313 -15 1298 8% NOVL 7/27 larry 2000 25.7500 51500 24.0625 48125 -3375 -15 -3390 -7% PHCM 9/8 ron -500 162.0000 -81000 167.7500 -83875 -2875 -15 -2890 -4% PIR 8/5 dan 5000 6.2500 31250 5.8125 29063 -2188 -15 -2203 -7% QCOM 9/1 larry 500 175.0000 87500 165.6875 82844 -4656 -15 -4671 -5% TJOB 9/8 ron -5000 10.3750 -51875 8.0938 -40469 11406 -15 11391 22% WHC 9/2 paul 2000 13.5000 27000 14.6250 29250 2250 -15 2235 8% ZANY 8/23 larry 5000 8.3750 41875 8.0000 40000 -1875 -15 -1890 -5% * * * * * 352876 366781 13906 -300 13606 4% Portfolio Summary** Beg Bal 500000 Plus Gains Realized 468689 Less Holdings at Cost 352876 Equals Cash Balance 615813 Plus Holdings At Present Price 366781 Equals Total Portfolio Balance 982594 Portfolio Change YTD 96.52%