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To: Chas who wrote (48171)9/11/1999 12:58:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
>>So, from a history perspective, DRAM has a good chance of staying strong thru this period unless some other factor comes into play.<<

chas, agreed. there is panic buying in the spot market. this could lead to contract prices above $7 - a nice reported profit for mu (but still a net cash deficit) maybe even higher.

keep an eye on a couple things, though.

it appears that end demand isn't strong. fred's article said unit sales were down. if you sold 100 last year, buy 150 this year and sell only 95, what does that do to your suppliers' future demand?

this is what fred calls nuclear winter.

i'm sure it is more thrilling to be shot out of a canon than it is to bounce on a trampoline - on the way up. although the canon trip will be much higher, the end is disaster.

well though out opinions are always welcome.