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Technology Stocks : Vari-L (VARL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBruin who wrote (1184)	9/11/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: Labrador	Respond to of 2702

I think that the company will have a good quarter -- but I think that the next two quarters will really tell the tale on VARL. This will show if the company's backlog is increasing, we'll have a better understanding of who are new customers, size of orders and whether increases in the consumer sector are materializing. Further, as "smarter" consumer wireless product sales take hold, which focus more on data and internet capabilities, an upgrades to better components running on less power may increase the demand for Vari-L. Past quarter and maybe this quarter's growth gets masked by stagnant sales to military, which I think may be lower margin. Further, recognize that share price has moved up from the $6 area and seems to be comfortable around $9.50 to $10.50 range, notwithstanding that earnings stayed constant in past quarter (although sales growth over last year is up 30%). That is a pretty 50% move up. I do think that there are a lot of fair-weather retail investors in shares of Vari-L. They hear nothing from the company, no updates on sales, customers, etc. and they get tired of waiting. All we ever see is an occasional release saying some mumbo-jumbo about a new patent, which goes over my head. Further, insider sales haven't really helped. If the company did a better job of PR, we'd probably be at the $12-$14 range. In any regard, I sitting here til April 2000 before re-evaluate the growth of the Vari-L's consumer sector.

To: JBruin who wrote (1184)	9/11/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: Labrador	Respond to of 2702

Insider sales -- Let me also comment on what is perceived to be significant insider sales on VARL executives. biz.yahoo.com This has been viewed as a negative (and should be), but what has not been mentioned on this board is that these executives are exercising their nonqualified stock options with a strike price of $6.19. Then they are immediately selling the shares. These options (I believe) expire at the end of Sept 1999. These executives hold other NQ options. These employees may not have the financial capacity to exercise and hold the stock, so they sell. If this is the case, and looking at the compensation level of the selling executives and their other NQ holdings, the sales are to be expected. This is prudent from a portfolio management perspective and may be the only alternative to cash in on the bargain element of the NQs.

To: JBruin who wrote (1184)	9/11/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: Robert Sheldon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2702

1)around 20% y.o.y growth can be found in a stable s&p 500 stock so money comes out of the risky micro-cap & goes to the "safer" large cap The way I calculate S&P 500 earnings they are only going to see about 12% to 15% for the full year. Yes, this quarter should be good, but it is on an easy comparison to last year. $0.15 would be a fine quarter for VARL. But, as I mentioned before, I am looking for $0.16 to $0.17. This is realistic. Anyway, my point is not this quarter's earnings or a comparison to the S&P 500 . . . you are ignoring the huge growth potential for wireless related companies. The S&P 500 is collectively nearly out of accounting tricks to turn 5% top line growth into ~12%-%15 bottom line growth. That party is about over. VARL will probably grow top line in excess of 20% and turn bottom line into 30% or better. AND THIS IS SUSTAINABLE FOR SEVERAL YEARS. The S&P 500 is running into the law of large numbers where earnings growth is concerned. Do you remember IBM in the late 70s? It was projected to grow at 20% PER YEAR to infinity. If that were true, IBM should be larger than the collective S&P 500 now! My point is this, the S&P 500 has a day of reckoning coming soon for numerous reasons, but the fine folks at VARL (especially with their new large line of credit) have numerous reasons why they WILL continue to grow top line in excess of 20%. Now, which investment would you prefer? One that the crowd is chasing, or one that exhibits a solid value and logical growth prospects? Sorry for that ramble! 2)isn't the only estimate at .16? The only reason why a miss might be good is that it seems the positive surprises have hurt the most. First Call has the September quarter at $0.12. That's Red Chip Review for you. They are also the same crew that has $0.55 for the whole year! Anyway the people over at Zacks do have VARL at $0.16 for the quarter . . . I really do not know who that is . . . Our friend Jim Creamer at EBI Securities had $0.15 last time I spoke with him. Call him at 800-289-5691 for a comprehensive report – or wait a bit, I think he is getting ready to revisit his numbers. Anyway, I really feel like broadband (see prior posts referring to Netro and Newbridge) and opteoelectric (JDS Uniphase and Lucent) are roaring in addition to strong commercial sales (base-stations). ERICY has really been drawing product from VARL and it is only a matter of time before we see the new $200MM order from Sprint PCS (via ERICY) hit VARL's books (a portion folks, not the whole $200MM!). If handsets continue to build momentum, VARL could easily grow top line 40%+ next year. By the way, the new consensus for worldwide handset sales in the 330MM range. A huge jump from prior estimates. Does this help?