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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcher who wrote (25546)	9/11/1999 7:49:00 AM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Outlook for 9/13 - 9/17/99 MORE RALLY COMING In our 9/6/99 commentary we stated: "...the market appears to be headed for a re-test of the 8/25 high at a minimum, and quite possibly a trip to new highs. Our cycle work now points up strongly into 9/27 +/- 3 trading days, with a minor cycle high due 9/14 +/- 2 trading days... Seasonality will also be favorable during the 9/11-9/20 time period according to the "buy on Rosh Hashanah, sell on Yom Kippur" rule, coupled with the positive expiration week bias. And then finally we get end-of-quarter "window dressing" into month-end... So, we are inclined to favor the long side of the market over the short side this month, as the most bearish outcome we would expect this month would be a sideways trading range, with the most bullish outcome being a blow-off rally to new highs. " Last weeks action was fairly uneventful, as the market basically traded in a narrow sideways trading range all week long. The market appears to be consolidating after last Friday's huge gains, and there may be some further consolidation/pullback going as a result of inflation jitters going into this Wednesday's CPI report. However, as stated in last week's commentary above, seasonality, and cycles favor more rally to come into the late September time period. Based on the fact the we are now in the window for our 9/14 +/- 2 trading day minor cycle high, we would expect that that market will experience a brief pullback at some point next week. If the market drops prior to Wednesday's CPI we would view that as a good short-term buying opportunity for a final push to new highs into month-end. However, the "buy the Friday of pre-expiration week trade is fairly reliable and suggests that next week should end up being a good week for bulls when all is said and done. This also agrees with "buy on Rosh Hashanah (9/11) and sell on Yom Kippur (9/20). Again, due to extreme over valuation, the risk level is high for long positions, so we must watch key indicators closely as we attempt to finesse the final weeks of this bull run. The McClellan Oscillator is one of those key indicators, and a drop below the zero line would be of concern, with a breakdown below -50 being a signal the the top is in. Also, the T-Bond yield continues to struggle with the key psychological level of 6.0%. A drop in yield below 6.0% would be very bullish for the coming weeks, while a failure to drop below 6.0% in the aftermath of Wednesday's CPI report could cause some definite heartburn for bulls. As we have stated for some time we do not see a crash or mini-crash as being a threat until the month of October. Based on our cycle work, the 10/19 +/- 3 trading day time frame is the most likely window for a crash or mini-crash low. So, we will be looking to switch from our current bullish posture to a bearish posture, emphasizing puts and short selling come late September, looking for a very severe drop into mid to late October. (c) 1999. Bill Shepler - E-mail him at wshepler@yahoo.com

To: marcher who wrote (25546)	9/11/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: marcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The ahhaha perspective: To: ahhaha (347 ) From: ahhaha Thursday, Sep 9 1999 11:38PM ET Reply # of 349 A news item got ignored today. It was that import prices rose 1% last month. The prejudice in the stock market is amazing. The shorts are scared of non-events and ignore big negatives. Increasing import prices raise the compensation leverage of domestic labor. One can blame it on the dollar with the cavalier attitude that the market already knows, but the players don't assume there is upward pressure on labor cost from this. The dollar translates import prices, but it isn't the retail pass through which is the negative, rather, it is the labor effect. Also today aside from the usual ambiguous disinformation efforts by various fed presidential stooges, our boys in the four columned building did a coupon pass. That in itself has become the norm. After all, we expect a lot of production from those boys. Today, though, it came at an unusual time. The DOW and other averages were setting up to make a nasty down side plunge, but just then, our boys came in with the fix and everyone was happy. They know the market wants to go down big and so they have to keep it propped because it has become the machine of prosperity. They also know they can influence that prosperity with less dough than it takes with overt rate fixing. They have to shoot through the psychological connection at the short interest, but that interest is sufficiently large so that the stock market can be manipulated. The institutions like this a lot because it is enabling them to distribute stocks into the speculating public hands without too much price concession. Thus, the FED is engineering the moral imperative. They are punishing greed and helping prudence. When this gets around the whisper circuit there will be an acceleration of activity as the less informed try to extract themselves protectively. The outcome historically has been snowballing avalanche. The FED knows it and hates it, but they got to get it down somehow, so gradually will be attempted. Of course, that will bring about the greatest grief, because if I know it, so do others. They all are watching the door more and more closely. They see the Trannies and Utes locked in major down trends wildly diverging from the industrials with the breadth worse than it has been in all history, and old reliables like AHP making a breakout down side gap. KO breaking its major uptrend and neckline. DIS double topped and headed drearily down, and F preparing for the plunge to the neckline from where it will proceed horribly down during 2000. The FED doesn't need to get it down at all. It's moving there inexorably while the patzer public toasts the roar of crowds. Message 11207673