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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - who wrote (942)	9/12/1999 5:39:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3350

PAT, IDC and Dataquest forcasts are not based on historical data they're based on vendor forecasts. I agree some ISP's and CLEC's will buy JNPR because they want a second source... witness UUNET. What market share will this translate into? POS is a huge impact on those that were pusing core routing....like JNPR. If POS takes off the core routing makret is much smaller and JNPR's business model will need a quick massage. One needs to be realistic about those CSCO products, which tend to be about 18 months behind the leading edge vendors, in terms of features, capabilities, and technology. Really???? Yes, there are cases where cisco waited for a market to develop but this is by design I can guarantee you that. As for competetion - I never said (and if I did I was wrong) that no one can compete with Cisco. My point is quite clear and to the point and they were orginally directed at Wizzard. #1 JNPR does not own 100% of the market #2 JNPR's current target market is small #3 JNPR is only a blip in market share right now #4 The technology in the core is shifting away from core routing #5 JNPR's ability to grow will depend on success in the Enterprise #6 Their competition - CSCO will be difficult to beat #7 JNPR - even if they get 10% market share it will take many years and does not justify todays valuation #8 Fact: Other competitors have failed to succeed in competitng against CSCO. The most recent to cry "uncle" IBM. What is so different about JNPR that they will succeed? #9 At today's valuation, given the product line, JNPR is not a buyout candidate. JNPR therefore has no choice but to succeed. #10. Are you willing to bet on JNPR is competing against CSCO, LU and NT???? If you are...I'd buy more JNPR here at $200/share. Hey, this was a great IPO - I made a nice little bundle. But this is no $10B company... not a chance. Not today - not next year.. Yes, I could be wrong 5 years from now, but I'll put my money on the lead horses in this race. Breaking into the carriers with one or two niche products when the competition is coming in with complete solutions will be tough... especially as networks become applications aware and the need to deliver end to end QoS, element management, policy, and provisioning capability will be a neccessity for these carriers to compete. The best way for them to do it... a single vendor or at least two that are working together... Do you think CSCO will work with JNPR given Cisco's 12000 ---> Cerant ----> Monterrey solution... ??? OG