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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (50998)	9/12/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

On the topic of BOOM 2000 and how it can affect oil demand going forward. The funny thing is that nothing has been mentioned of Russia and the CIS states. I hold stock in the Russian vertically integrated oil company Lukoil (they are the biggest public oil company in the world by reserves) According to what they have been saying, oil demand internal to Russia is up 11% so far this year. Contrary to the predictions, Russia looks to be in for a positive growth year with GDP up 2% or so after being a negative 3% in Q1. So, there is some more incremental demand for the world oil right there. Also, Russian oil companies have been maximizing the benefit of getting higher prices for oil by exporting (prices internal to Russia are artificially low). For that reason, an oil and gasoline shortage has occurred in Russia (forcing prices much higher). So, the way I look at it, Russia and the CIS states are maxing out on exports currently. Once domestic oil and gasoline prices approach international prices, the incentive to export will be gone, and the demand will be there internally for the oil previously exported. So, there could be a significant drop or at least a levelling off of exports irregardless of how high the prices go.

To: Razorbak who wrote (50998)	9/13/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

HMARQ Debate Rages ON! Razorbak, As expected, I find your arguments objective , balanced and very compelling. The Chap 11 Booklet cacb.uscourts.gov. Provides a very useful overview of the process. I saved it for future reference. Razorbak: “I actually believe Artic's assessment of a 1 in 6 probability of success may be a little optimistic when compared to bankruptcy statistics.” Appreciate the stat's article amcity.com You demonstrated objectivity by including a company which survived the Chap 11 process. "There's more breathing room to recapitalize today," said Foley & Lardner attorney Gardner Davis. "When companies are in trouble there's more money to access. It seems that everyone and his brother wants to lend or to invest in a private equity fund." Davis was one of the attorneys representing American Body Armor, now Armor Holdings Inc., when the Jacksonville manufacturer of bullet proof vests and other security equipment filed for Chapter 11 protection from creditors in 1992. Fifteen months and $700,000 later, the company successfully completed its reorganization plan. "Every CEO should go through the process once. It teaches a lot of discipline. But once is enough," said Jonathan Spiller, Armor Holdings' president and chief executive. During the bankruptcy process, the company stock was trading around 50 cents a share and at 79 cents when the process was completed. On June 23 (1997- inserted) the stock (AMEX: ABE) closed at $10.50.” With this example, some balance is achieved with regard to Odds. Although the odds against success may be long, the gamble is offset by the possible reward. 2k shares in ABE bought @ $.50 (cost $1k) would have yielded a $580. (58%) Gain, if sold when the process was completed .; or if held until the date of the article (6/23/97) @$10.50 a gain of $20k (2000%). While the statistical odds against success, in general, is awesome compelling arguments can be made that Hvide Marine may be one of the success stories and if not, opportunity still exists for trader profitability over the next several months. 1. While The $168.5m SE with a $10.83 BOOK VALUE will face further erosion during the process and “substantial dilution” will also occur, it is likely these items will remain in very positive territory. It is my view that the company is doing a viable business in an industry anticipated to grow into the forseeable future and this fact alone reduces the odds against failure. 2. During the process, there will likely be wide swings in the stock prices. A view of BID/ASK quotes And size (eg. As provided by DATEK's ECN Island) will be a useful realtime guide to support and resistance levels. The point; there is money to be made/lost for the next several months regardless of ultimate outcome (success or failure) of the Company. 3. The Company is now headed by a seasoned CEO. 4. The Senior Debt holders willingness to trade Debt for Equity provides a basis for thinking they have confidence the Company will succeed. As future equity holders, it advances their own interests to cooperate in achieving a successful result. 5. While the statistical odds favor a drawn out affair, I have no reason to doubt the Company's statement that they anticipate emerging from Chap 11 within the next couple of quarters. The plans for restructuring have been negotiated for months and it appears, the parties are coming into general agreement. In the interest of time and space I will temporarily end here. Good luck to all and thank you razorbak for your timely research. SargeK

To: Razorbak who wrote (50998)	10/12/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Razorbak, re:Hvide Marine (HMARQ) Would appreciate your views on a shareholders letter to Hvide management, the SEC and the Bankruptcy judge. I copied the 4 part letter from the YAHOO board and placed it on SI. The shareholder has acquired 50k shares of HMARQ in recent months based on analysis reminiscent of my own. I share his arguments that the "proposal" appears to be a gigantic rip-off of shareholders and an amazing reward for unsecured debt holders. Your comments will be much appreciated. TIA Message 11499929 SargeK For current quote goto: quicken.com For rating and target price goto: quicken.com