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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Sherman who wrote (3321)	9/12/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Peter - LRCX business sounds like it will always be cyclical Not too surprising. Almost all capital equipment companies are at the whip end of the supply/demand chain. Semiconductor capital equipment is no different except in so far as they experience long term growth on which the cycles are superimposed. Clark

To: Peter Sherman who wrote (3321)	9/12/1999 11:53:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 5867

I agree with Clark. I see boom-bust cycles in semiconductor equipment as inevitable. One component of this is the influence of the boom-bust cycles in DRAM, about which I recently had this to say: Message 9204902 Of course, DRAM is not the whole semiconductor industry, and it represents a smaller percentage of semiconductor equipment companies' business than it used to. But when you consider that some of the arguments which apply to DRAM manufacturers also apply to foundries, which can make more complex and varied chips, depending on what their customers need, then it seems likely that cyclical influences will continue. The big problem with investing in these cycles is knowing how long the current uptrend will be. Over the history of the industry, the uptrends have lasted anywhere from 2-3 years, to as short as one year (as in 1996-97). One thing which bodes well for the possibility of a return to the two or three year uptrend as in days of yore is that, according to Applied Materials' CEO James Morgan, semiconductor manufacturers are being cautious in their ordering this time around. While my comments may sound mildly bullish, I should point out that I have sold most of my semiconductor equipment stocks. The current levels of P/E, based on forecast earnings, do leave room for further appreciation IF the forecasts pan out, but we are long past the time when it makes sense to concentrate assets in the sector, IMO.