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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.Prazeres who wrote (25602)	9/13/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET NEWS SURVEY OF US ECONOMIC FORECASTS WASHINGTON (MktNews) - The upcoming week is full of economic indicators, with retail sales, CPI, and industrial production garnering the most attention for their possible effects on monetary policy. Business inventories, the Philadelphia Fed Index, and housing starts round out the week. -- Retail Sales for August (percent change) Tuesday, September 14 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Ret Sales +0.8% +0.3% to +1.0% 23 -- +0.7% -0.2% Ex-Autos +0.4% +0.2% to +0.6% 22 -- +0.3% +0.1% Comments: Retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% in August, still incredibly strong as consumption continues to surge. The gasoline service sector likely received another boost from gasoline prices, while auto production points to continued strong sales. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to be up 0.4%, with department store sales still strong going into fall and winter. Building materials sales may have softened from a boost in July. -- Consumer Price Index for August (percent change) Wednesday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 CPI +0.3% +0.2% to +0.4% 23 -- +0.3% UNCH CPI Core +0.2% UNCH to +0.2% 22 -- +0.2% +0.1% Comments: CPI is expected to be up 0.3%, and up 0.2% excluding food and energy, which are both expected to accelerate in August. Airline fares should soften from their 6.5% July gain as airlines actually cut prices in early August. New vehicle prices likely posted another increase, while tobacco could retrace some of its 3.3% July rise. -- Business Inventories for July (percent change) Wednesday, September 15 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Jul99 Jun99 May99 Inventories +0.5% +0.2% to +0.7% 20 -- +0.3% +0.3% Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in July, breaking the trend of 0.3% gains over the last two months. Factory inventories were already reported up 0.5% in August, while wholesale inventories were reported up 0.9%. -- Jobless Claims for week ended September 11 (change/level in thousands) Thursday, September 16 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep11 Sep4 Aug28 New Claims +4/290 -1/285 to +10/296 9 -- -4/286 +5/290 Comments: Claims are expected to rise 4,000 to 290,000 in the September 11 week, still low with no signs of labor market slackening. -- Industrial Production for August (percent change) Thursday, September 16 at 9:15 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Ind Prod -0.1% -0.4% to +0.4% 23 -- +0.7% +0.1% Cap Util 80.4% 80.0% to 80.7% 23 -- 80.7% 80.3% Comments: Industrial production is expected to fall 0.1% in August, losing some steam after a 0.7% jump in July. Electric utilities made up much of the July number, and should retreat somewhat in August, while manufacturing is expected to remain positive due to petroleum products and motor vehicles. Capacity utilization is expected to fall to 80.4%. -- Phila. Federal Reserve Index for September (diffusion index) Thursday, August 16 at 10:00 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Sep99 Aug99 Jul99 Phila Fed 11.5 8.0 to 15.0 11 -- 12.0 7.8 Comments: The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to fall slightly to 11.5 in September, the first look at manufacturing for the month. Analysts will wait for the national surveys, but it appear that manufacturing remains strong. -- Housing Starts for August (annual rate, million) Friday, September 17 at 8:30 a.m. EDT Actual: Median Range Responses Aug99 Jul99 Jun99 Starts 1.630m 1.570m to 1.670m 23 -- 1.661m 1.571m Permits 1.640m 1.550m to 1.690m 4 -- 1.632m 1.641m Comments: Housing starts are expected to fall to a 1.630 million annual rate in August after a large jump in July. The National Association of Home Builders survey for August fell off, suggesting that starts would be weaker in August. Permits are expected to rise to a 1.640 million at an annual rate.