"..From the jus' so's ya know Department.."
Sept. 14 — Asia breathes easier when the United States and China are on speaking terms. So the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Auckland, New Zealand, came not a moment too soon, giving Presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin a chance to make amends. After private meetings, the two leaders emerged smiling. The question now: how long can the mood last?
“THE RELATIONSHIP has been improved,” Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan told a news conference at the APEC forum, where Clinton and Jiang met. Tang described the warmer relationship as “a major event of positive significance,” and repeated the official Chinese characterization of Saturday's summit as “positive and constructive.”
Just like that, China and the United States turned around what Henry Kissinger described as “the greatest strain in Sino-American relations since diplomatic contact was reestablished in 1971.” But in this fragile relationship between giants, any truce will hit trouble before long, say China watchers. As Beijing's threats of force towards independence-minded Taiwan continue, and as congressional critics of China raise their voices, the optimism of the Jiang-Clinton meeting is likely short-lived.
TAIWAN TENSION JUST BELOW THE SURFACE Almost certain to raise temperatures in the coming six months to a year is the fate of Taiwan, an island that Beijing claims as its own, but that is steadily pressing for international recognition and official independence. The United States has been the third party in a high-stakes game between impossible-to-ignore Beijing and historical ally Taipei.
However, to preserve the status quo — which has been the key to stability between the two enemies facing off across the Taiwan Straits — Clinton reaffirmed its adherence to the One China Policy, premised on the idea that the two sides will unite, peacefully, someday.
Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui has been challenging that policy, suggesting that Taiwan is a state, not just an estranged part of China. So Beijing was looking for reassurance that the U.S. didn't support Taiwan's new language. For now, at least, Beijing got what it wanted.
“Clearly, Washington's stand on the One China policy calms the water somewhat, but that doesn't mean the issue went away,” says Drew Liu, executive director of China Strategic Institute in Washington, D.C. Liu says Beijing is probably awaiting the results of a Taiwan's presidential vote next March.
If it puts independence activists in charge of the island, then Beijing will make its next move. “Unless something changes in Taiwan, the tension is there, the danger is there, and the seed of war is growing,” he says.
TRADE ON THE HORIZON Another factor is that in the current U.S. political atmosphere, China has become synonymous with scandal. If it isn't the target of military spying charges, then it's suspect for trying to buy American politicians. It is not a fashionable time to be sympathetic with China.
One of the reasons Jiang looked so pleased after his meeting with Clinton was likely that Clinton pledged support for China's World Trade Organization membership. This has long been Clinton's position, and the two sides were near a deal last April — a deal that would just about seal China's entry to the global trade body. But negotiations were bungled, and then derailed by some ugly incidents.
For one, in the U.S., the Cox Commission published its report alleging massive military espionage by China. Shortly thereafter, NATO forces, led by the U.S., bombed China's embassy in Belgrade during the campaign to save Kosovo. Three people were killed and scores injured. In response, Chinese citizens attacked U.S. diplomatic missions in China, setting one ablaze. The trading of blame put WTO on a back burner.
Now that trade is back on the table — talks resumed Sunday and Monday — there is more pressure on the Clinton administration to ask for tougher conditions and more concessions from China, which has already put forth a deal that U.S. businessmen could have long dreamed about. More movement at this point is going to be tough.
Jiang's optimistic glow from the Auckland meetings may fade, says one U.S. congressional aide in the Republican camp. “It was a clear Chinese effort to seek some smoother waters after several months of uncalm, in a build-up to final bargaining on WTO,” said the source, who asked not to be named. “It's just a small portal in the storm. (China's) WTO accession will spark a huge fight in Congress.”
UNSPENT AMMUNITION It's clear too, that China is only setting aside its anger about the Belgrade bombing, which many Chinese believe was intentional, and it will remain on record as a bargaining chip despite U.S. efforts to explain and compensate for the attack.
“There is a need for the U.S. side to do more concrete deeds to heal the scars the bombing incident has left on the hearts of Chinese people,” Tang said. He called on the United States to offer a “more satisfactory” explanation for the attack.
Washington has apologized repeatedly for what it calls a tragic accident caused by a string of intelligence blunders. It has sent a senior official to Beijing to offer a detailed explanation. In addition, the United States has offered $4.5 million to families of three Chinese journalists killed in the attack, and to those injured.
The two sides have still not resolved the issue of compensation for damage to the embassy, and a counter-claim by Washington for damage to its Beijing mission caused by rock-throwing demonstrators.
ANOTHER INFORMAL CHAT? Clinton and Jiang spoke informally at an APEC leaders' meeting and exchanged views on many issues, Tang said.
There have been suggestions Clinton and Jiang might meet again when their paths cross in Christchurch on New Zealand's South Island this week. Both leaders have stayed on for state visits after the conclusion of APEC. However, Tang said he was not aware of any meeting in Christchurch.
Tang took issue with a reporter at the news conference who suggested statements by U.S. officials on the WTO talks were more positive than those from the Chinese side. “You are mistaken,” he said. He insisted that China “has always been positively engaged” during 13 years of negotiations over its accession to the 134-member global trade body.
On Sunday, a Chinese government spokesman shrugged off the prospect of failure in the WTO negotiations, saying the Chinese economy would grow with or without membership.
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