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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8234)	9/13/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78796

Re: home builders, I've gone with Crossman Communities at 25 1/4. I like their return on investment characteristics, inventory management both of which seem to be near the top of the industry. Still small but significant, with good roomf or growth come hell or high interest rates. Sells lower-cost homes in midwest and southeast, and to me for this reason has lower exposure to higher interest rates (for both the low-end reason and the favorable long-term geographic reason). Bought it today. Added Maxwell Shoe, and more Ross Stores. Also trying my luck with another Amazon short at 65. Amazon crashed hard when the market fell last month, so I'm using it mainly as a market hedge, but also with favorably poor fundamentals. Mike

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8234)	9/13/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78796

OT I have increased my position once again in IDTC after it dropped to 21 3/4. I do not know if this will be the end of the decline, but my current assesment is that NTOP is worth at least $30 a share. 57% of that is $17.10 and that interest would probably sell for a premium. At these levels I believe that means the rest of the company is free, and hence I am a buyer at these levels. Also listening to the president Couter.sic. I realized he is personally pissed off at the way his own stock is doing and sounds determined to push for some action to be taken to increase the valuation. so I have decide not to take a chance on the train leaving without me on board.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8234)	9/14/1999 9:31:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78796

Comment on builders--A couple of reasons they don't "get much respect" are (1) their accounting is suspect, sometimes. As a former commercial banker, I can remember the problems in some balance sheets and income statements we received. Sometimes a little over-creative. Unfortunately, there seems to be a fair amount of room for that in the building process. (2) exposure to both the economic cycle and interest rates. They can get a double-whammy hit with a big rise in rates with inflation and economic retrenchment. By the way, Paul, I think I was the one who warned you off ALL some time ago. Unfortunately I still have it! I've got to learn when to sell. :o(. Best, JS

To: Paul Senior who wrote (8234)	9/16/1999 4:23:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78796

re. homebuilders, I calculated an average p/e of 7.1 for the 7 stocks recommended by Merrill Lynch. That's based on trailing 12 months, at today's price. The Sept. 9 ML research report on the sector says these 7 stocks will have eps growth of 32% in CY99 and 12% in CY00. The valuation looks very good to me, with a p/e of 7 and double-digit growth rates. It seems that Mr. Market is pricing the sector assuming a scenario that is a lot uglier than ML's. the ML seven are: LEN KBH DHI MDC TOL CTX PHM finance.yahoo.com Earlier this week I added KBH and DHI to my existing position in LEN. One attraction to LEN and KBH is that they have a high exposure to California. I agree with Michael that CROS has superb management and business model. The disadvantage I see is that I just don't want to pay a premium in p/e and p/b for a smaller cap company where the differences in ROE compared to the bigger players are not that great.