Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (51037)	9/13/1999 1:36:00 PM
From: pz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Oil +.58 at $24.13.....Is this correct? Paul

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (51037)	9/13/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: double-plus-good	Respond to of 95453

Regarding OSX - ENP rotation; best to view it as a combined universe and rotate between. at the present moment its shaping up to be a rotate into ENP from OSX in the near-term. pretty hard to sell anything that you have made a case for in this environment, however. my question is which in the oil and gas land are going to be tax selling victims. for entities that only play the universe we trade in here that would leave some lightly traded laggards into the leftovers and leftbehinds and a few choice morsels left for dead. obvious candidates already near death; EGEO, WEL, FEN, HMAR, EEE, and OMNI slagging off lately to join the crew. where is the valus among these, notwitstanding the current debate on HMAR? ++good

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (51037)	9/13/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

< when do we start rolling the E&P profits back into the OSX stocks? > 1. When the no-brainer valuations are no longer readilly available in the E&P's. - the E&P's are selling at the bottom of their historic multiple range based upon their actual earnings, cash flow etc. The driller & service stocks are NOT - historically as cheap here when based on historic multiples of their actual earnings, cash flow, rig counts, dayrates, backlogs etc... they are inflated here (not overinflated however) on the realistic high expectations of the coming qtrs. - not pure fundamental values on an earnings, cash flow basis in most cases. Certainly - not comparable to the E&P's fundamentally, or in the respect that the E&P's receive the bottomline effect of higher gas & oil prices immediately - unlike the OSX companies. 2. When the GOM rig count rises over 135+ and is strongly trending towards the benchmark - 150 GOM rigs at work. 3. When the drillers & service stocks actually show increased year over year rig counts, dayrates, earnings, cash flow, backlogs... Actually; the timeframe here is playing out near perfectly. I view the above criteria to be reached by the OSX stocks around Feb - March. Remember the Majors & Big Independants have yet to formalize 2000 cap ex spending budgets... There will be no miraculous uptick in rig counts, new order-backlog activity etc. in the next 90 days. The budgets don't allow it. Now that is not to say that we will not see substantial uptick through the year end - but; in perspective; we are still way, way below last years levels in rig counts, dayrates, backlogs etc.- this upside is merely bringing us inline with last years numbers; and those really are nothing to get all to excited about. That will give us time for 2 more qtrs of earnings to be reported by the E&P's and we will be firmly into the winter heating season for Nat Gas Stocks.The E&P's will "pop" off of Q3 reporting and especially off of Q4 - I view post Q4 reporting - mid/late Jan. to be a good profit taking opp in E&P's - and the beginning of the sweet spot to rotate into the driller & service companies as their fundamentals just are not going to substantially turn untill then. But, when they do - I think they are going to upside surprise everyone. We will also know that OPEC has created a speculative Crude Price Bubble - post their coming Sept. meeting and agreement to continue the cuts. The sustainability issue will disappear with $25 - $27 crude; and I think we will see those levels mid winter. If anyone runs the numbers; on how cfps & earnings will change for the small & mid cap E&P's with a winter of sustained $2.75+ Nat Gas & $20+ crude oil... there would be no hesitation to be very overweighted into the E&P's here imho. We have "doubles" left all over the sector on merely their actual earnings & cash flow upside... I do not see many fundamentally supported "doubles" nearterm in the OSX - few at all. E&P's will be driven by actual bottomline results - the OSX is still running on only expectations - fundamentally; no comparison to the bottomline upside in the next 6 months.