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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanmore who wrote (43463)	9/13/1999 4:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

wanmore, number one is pornography, which will always prosper. the beginning of the end (i too believe that's not it yet) will be characterized by being unrecognizable. that is to say, one or two crash prophets at most will call the impending crash correctly, IF there is a crash. the fact remains that crashes are highly unusual and rare events. however,when they occur, they ALWAYS do so when stocks are extremely overvalued, so the main precondition for a potential crash is certainly present. another precondition is academic circles embracing the bull market...also fulfilled. others are complacency, deterioration of market internals and liquidity drying up. the only point that remains open to debate is the liquidity issue imo. one leg of the liquidity stool is being kicked away with the weakness in the dollar, however, the Fed is not entirely readable w/regards to what it's actually doing here...on the one hand, coupon passes are well on their way into record territory and credit demand continues unabated at current rates. apparently the Fed has no intention to curb the credit bubble (guess why). otoh, money supply growth has grown more erratic in the course of this year, and frankly, i don't know how to interpret these conflicting signals. i know one thing though: give this market ONE reason for a really serious crisis of confidence (e.g. a 30bn. trade deficit, a much bigger-than-expected CPI, whatever) and you'll get your panic selling. should serious liquidation ever get started in this market, there will be no stopping it. in the meantime, i think that some sort of blow-off rally is still ahead. whether it will happen right away, or only after another correction i'm not sure. but it would be out of character and contrary to historical precedent if the biggest investment mania of all time were to end without a blow-off.