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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (61500)	9/13/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

no surprise there. Dow 3,000 was a favorite tout-target in '87 if i remember correctly. otoh, the mania has carried us this far, why not a little bit further..

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (61500)	9/13/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Random Musings: Y2K - A Definite event even if it is a non-event. Sez ME, Mohan! 1. Y2k fix affected spending positively so far. 2. Y2k fear affected nothing. A good majority of the people I know think it will be a non-event. I think it will be slight nusense - that's about it. 3. However - Most spending and hence the boom associated with the spending are a thing of the past. Now they will sit and wait. No need to be scared of the event once it passes. 4. "Nuclear winter" makes sense. 5. What happens in Jan, 2000? An unprecedented rally in the stocks - as I expect. I expect a 10% rally in one day on Jan 2nd. It is a "nothing drastic happened" relief rally. It will probably continue for all of Jan and possibly Feb. And then.... 5 a. confessions of lack of demand for tech should kill many tech stocks by end of March. 6. What happens before January 2000? I don't know. You tell me! My vision is better beyond Jan 2000 - not so good before that! -Mohan 9/13/1999 - 5:54 PM. <<10:17 ET ****** The Y2K Slowdown : In a frank admission that corporate IT spending really is in a slowdown, Computer Task Group (TSK) warns that Q3 earnings and revenues will be below analyst's expectations. The debate over Y2K causing a slowdown in corporate IT spending has been going on since early spring. At the Goldman Sachs Technical conference in February, noted software analyst Rick Sherlund adamantly argued that a Q3-Q4 "nuclear winter" of IT spending was not going to happen. The argument was that, while corporations might not begin new projects just before the critical Y2K date, they would still be planning their projects for after Y2K, meaning spending for software services and consulting, and new software purchases would still be ongoing through Q3 and Q4. This argument just hasn't held up, at least not for the systems integrators. But also not for New Era of Networks, which saw a sequential revenue decline last quarter destroy their stock value. Is it now safe to say that there really is a corporate IT spending drought? We think so, and it will probably be seen to some degree in every enterprise software company, including Microsoft (MSFT). It is probably still reasonable to assume that after the Y2K date passes, corporate IT spending will increase again, but that is really over six months away. Corporations won't start buying on January 2, they'll start planning again on January 5, or 20th, after having passed the great Y2K test. That's a long time for the stock market. Everyone who owns an enterprise software company, a software company whose sales are primarily to large corporations, should consider the risk of revenue and earnings shortfalls this quarter. It seems clear that, after NEON's experience, after Mastech's (MAST) warning on Friday, and now Computer Task Group's warning today, that there really is a major corporate IT slowdown, due to Y2K. Maybe it isn't a nuclear winter, but it only takes a slight chill to take a big chunk out of the stock price. TSK is off 11% right now, down -1 13/16, to $15, which is a new 52-week low. - RVG >>