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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (61603)	9/14/1999 5:57:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Bull RidaH, excellent analysis. Under your scenario where is the targeted bottom in an index like the Naz 100 when the index is manipulated with monthly additions and subtractions?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (61603)	9/14/1999 8:41:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

David, that's an interesting perspective...do you expect that we will actually see SPX 1150 if the scenario unfolds as you have outlined? btw, what do you think of Prechter's wave count (which i'm sure you're familiar with), or let me put it this way: is it possible in your opinion that Prechter's count is an alternative that should be considered, and if not, why not? i would also put it to you that there is a BIG difference between '81/'82 and now, inasmuch as no-one wanted to be in stocks in '82 and valuations were a fraction of today's. it could be argued (as Prechter does) that the whole period from '69 to '82 was a 4th wave corrective period (supercycle-wise) that ended in August '82 at the famous 'death of equities' low (S&P yield at the time: 6%+, now: 1,23%)and led to an extended supercycle 5th wave that either has already ended or is about to end, with an all-time record of households in the stock market, an all-time high in margin debt, an all-time high in market cap vs. GDP, an all-time high in valuations, and an all-time high in stock trading volume vs. GDP. wouldn't that be the ideal point to end a big cycle, considering that complacency is very high and market internals have been deteriorating for quite some time now? please feel free to blow holes in my arguments, i'm very interested in your opinion on this. regards, hb