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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (25681)	9/14/1999 3:29:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Lee .. Couple of things .. Max pain .. At the CBOE location there are two types of option lists. One is called near term. This near term list is what I've seen used for the calculations. This list is comprised of those near the money options that the CBOE had determined (by what means I have no idea) bracket the area most likely to contain the close price at the time of expiration. Many contracts are fall outside of this area. When I realized that the quality of the CBOE's estimation was another factor to take into consideration, and that the estimation altered the target, I completely stopped looking at the numbers. Of course the close price will fall near the center of the bracket. The only time that I pay attention to it now is when the trend moves up toward that date or down toward that date. The reason being that the transfer of stocks after expiration can change the market action after the fact. Let's see .. next .. I'm still waiting for the other shoe to fall regarding the move up in the price of the yen. I looked over charts of the yen and the SPX and noted that (most of the time) a move in the SPX followed the move in the yen by ~24hrs. We still have not seen a market move that would come anywhere near the magnitude of the move in the yen over the last few days. I figure that we should be about 75 SPX points lower than we are. next .. I got the same globex number(s?) prem open globex buy 18.18 1362.31 1 fair 16.02 1360.15 -215 sell 13.86 1357.99 -431 Armstrong .. Bad PR for the dollar .. They have some strange laws in Japan .. at least they seem strange to me. CitiBank took a simular hit not to long ago .. Seems to me that the way the system is set up over there, that if the Japanese lose money they start looking for someone to put in jail. I think with CitiBank they called it something like "actions against the people of Japan." ?? (something like that) It kinda sounded like treason. You know .. it's been real easy for a bear to lose a lot of money lately. I think that it's safe to say that Armstrong has been just a little bit bearish lately<g>. I'd hate to see all of his assets frozen just a few days before the BK hit. Next .. ummm .. goodnight I guess. Gersh