To: michael r potter who wrote (3445 ) 9/27/1999 1:59:00 AM From: michael r potter Read Replies (1) | Respond to
SFE $70 7/8 short term technical update. The sell signal was registered here at $69 5/8 on Sept. 14. Since then, as we know SFE moved above $75 briefly, as the stochastic wavered back and forth in overbought range. Currently the stochastic is headed in a more decisive direction down and currently SFE is only 1.8% above the date of the sell signal. Money flow has not appeared especially robust for about a month. On Sept 13, SL asked which would do better SFE or ICGE. The answer was stated to be ICGE as it had just corrected 25% while SFE had just gone up 50% almost uninterrupted. Since then, SFE is up 1.8% and ICGE is up 24%, after being much higher. Unless ICGE lends a lot of support this coming week, my best guess would be that SFE continues down. [May have to eat those words as SFE is trading at what I presume is a discount to NAV-hmm.[fundamentals and technicals collide]. Hard to tell what ICGE will do as it may get support from window dressing-"pro-managers" stuffing it in their portfolio at the end of the quarter to indicate to others how astute they were to own such a big winner. A strange concept, but apparently it goes on. ICGE came well off its highs but considering how richly valued it is, and that a lot of short term hot money influence its day to day direction, it held up reasonably well. If the market tubes, it is probably going to go down, but if the market just shows stability, it still acts like it wants to go up. Tough call on that one, especially in this week coming up. One other note regarding the sell signal on SFE. The last sell [July] and buy [Aug] signal witnesses SFE not reacting immediately to the signal, then moving more strongly toward the later stage. Kind of like a punch, then a delayed reaction. We'll see-downward action has been delayed now for 8 trading days so far.
