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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (51089)	9/14/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: A. Geiche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Market is waiting for confirmation that oil glut in US indeed disappeared.. API is expected to show that oil reserves went down last week, gasoline changed little, and distillates went up.. No where any expected numbers available..

To: The Ox who wrote (51089)	9/14/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Happel<Cause the selling by making the downgrade announcement and buy from all the chicken littles.> You've got that right... I agree that longterm - one could literally throw a dart in the OSX for 30% to 50%+ gains in the next 12-18 mos. Many will do better... I just think that the fundamentals and the shareprice valuations in the E&P Sector are much, much more attractive here - and will continue to be so for 4-6 mos. The OSX could move to 100ish here off of rotation from the overall market on Y2K, another Fed Rate hike etc. Anything here around OSX 85 sure looks to be a nice buy. I don't think that the Q3 earnings reports will have virtually anything positive; but conversely - nothing surprisingly negative. The OSX companies are in transition. The Cap Ex spending just will not come untill the beginning of 2000 - and it will be Q2 2000 before the OSX companies report upside gains from the prior years quarters - that will be the catalyst to where the sector outruns expectations & really takes off. Just watch Rig counts & dayrates & orders/backlogs - that is the only thing that anyone needs to follow; Right now - there is not a direct "connect" to Oil Prices. The "direct connect" is what the E&P's have - and again; cash is flowing to the bottom line - right now. Untill we see 135-150 GOM rigs at work, rising dayrates, new orders-rising backlogs; it's still an E&P game... and I am not talking micro's... OEI UPR XTO MRO PXD for example are not tiny companies... just a few choices in the mid- larger caps. I just feel I have a complete handle on the risk to the small & micro's ( MEXP RRC CRK HSE etc) - and the upside there dwarfs virtually anything in the OSX... one has to do lots & lots of "DD" to feel comfortable in the micro's & small caps; but it is well worth the effort... I think any retracement here prior to the OPEC meeting is a great short term trading opp - I would buy it - and sell the pop after OPEC announces continued cuts... as I think we retrace a bit, once again upon the reporting of Q3. That retrace - may be the last chance to buy OSX 85-90ish. I like MDR, GLBL, VRC on a return to 10-11ish, RIG is still too cheap, DO-MRL-SDC-RDC/ESV on any retrace of substance are no-brainers, PGO-VTS,IIR,HOFF - and the SII CAM WFT names will get the mo-mo of course... If I had to pick 2 to buy on a retrace: GLBL and FLC. GLBL see's $20 on any acknowledged full recovery and FLC $30 - I say by Memorial Day next year (VBG)! Good Luck Got MEXP ?