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64-Bit Rivals Set To Take On Merced
(09/07/99; 12:00 a.m. ET)
By Alexander Wolfe and Craig Matsumoto, EE Times
The microprocessors that will drive the next generation of 64-bit computing -- from Intel, Apple, and Sun Microsystems -- moved off the starting blocks last week, sparking competitive jockeying in an industry that lately has been marked more by promises than by shipping processors.
Also firmly in the mix is Compaq, which is quietly preparing its powerful, next-generation Alpha. High-end spins of Hewlett-Packard's PA and Silicon Graphics' MIPS processor are in the works as well, although both companies have committed themselves to the IA-64 architecture, jointly developed by Intel and HP, for the long haul.
Intel, pacing the pack, demonstrated its initial working samples of Merced silicon last week at the Intel Developer Forum.
The 64-bit Merced is the first implementation of the IA-64 architecture.
Separately, at the Seybold Publishing Conference, Apple Computer interim CEO Steve Jobs unveiled the long-awaited G4 family of PowerPC chips. Jobs said a 500-MHz PowerPC G4 could outpace a 600-MHz Pentium III.
For its part, Sun Microsystems -- likely Intel's most potent rival at the high end -- said it had samples of its Ultrasparc III in hand and was on target for volume shipment in December.
The Merced announcement put to rest industry scuttlebutt that Intel was having trouble finishing the device on schedule.
Now that Merced has made its appearance, however, the competitive landscape may have actually become more of a minefield, according to some analysts.
"There's a lot more to making a business than having a good design," said Janet Ramkissoon, an analyst at Quadra Capital. "This has become a very high-stakes power game. You have to have a lot of money and be able to manufacture what's designed.
"In other words, I can see a less elegant design winning. In the end, although Sparc is a great architecture, I have a hard time seeing how enough volumes can be generated to see them through their road map over the next five years. As for Compaq, they still have to solve how to finance [Alpha] going forward and how they'll manufacture it. Samsung is [an Alpha] partner, and I believe they will be a real player going forward. However, will Alpha generate sufficient volumes to make it worthwhile?"
At last week's forum, Intel executives were positively giddy, showing off Merced samples, complete with L2 cache encased in a cartridge, to any and all onlookers.
Intel officials compared Merced's performance bump over the Pentium III with the quantum leap in processing power that occurred in 1986, when the 80386 arrived and promptly upstaged the 286.
Intel president and CEO Craig Barrett kicked off the Merced-fest during his keynote speech, when he demonstrated a workstation platform, equipped with the processor, running Windows 2000 as well as Linux.
Still, Intel offered few details about the processor that weren't already publicly available.
When asked how fast the shipping silicon would be, one executive replied: "Fast enough." He said the first samples weren't "production speed, but they're also not the production stepping" that will hit the streets in mid-2000. Indeed, Intel expects to make a number of mask changes as it fixes early bugs during the next few months.
Intel's successful debut of Merced last week prompted it to refute that the architecture is merely a placeholder for future, faster versions of IA64.
"Merced is not a testbed," said Gadi Singer, vice president and general manager of Intel's microprocessor group. "We have many OEMs planning real products with Merced."
Singer disputed industry reports that HP had taken the lead role in designing McKinley, the immediate successor to Merced, due in 2003.
"McKinley is an Intel product," he said.
Nevertheless, Intel officials said McKinley will likely be a higher-volume product than Merced.
At the high end of the market in which Merced will play, Intel will have no more serious competitor than Sun Microsystems. The workstation maker, which maintains separate chip and systemsbusiness units, isn't buying Intel's new, upbeat take on Merced.
"We have 12,000 applications running on Sparc," said Fadi Azhari, marketing manager at Sun. "The issue for Merced is: Where are those applications? It's going to take a tremendous amount of time to get their apps tuned for optimum performance."
Azhari questioned which processor horse Intel was riding hardest.
"I've been hearing them tell independent software vendors to go to McKinley," he said. "Now they're saying, [use] Merced."
One negative Sun will likely have to battle is the megahertz question. Ultrasparc III is expected to debut at 600 MHz, a slower clock speed than Merced.
"MHz is not the only issue," Azhari said. "It's the scalability and the multiprocessing capability you can offer for the server market. We are 1,000-way [multiprocessing] capable, so from our perspective, we're well ahead of the game."
While Merced and Ultrasparc III will play in the stratosphere of the workstation and server markets, much interest last week revolved around the San Francisco debut of the G4 PowerPC. Even though Apple's Jobs hyberbolically billed the G4 as a "supercomputer on a chip," analysts believe it is likely to be more of a niche product, given the company's traditional markets. Nevertheless, it will be a potent competitor in Internet servers. |
