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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (25837)	9/15/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: Chris	Respond to of 99985

new lows went lower to 212. new highs dropped significantly as well. im looking at scenario where the indices will begin to roll over one by one (not at once) dow/spx first, then naz/ndx. we will see.

To: donald sew who wrote (25837)	9/15/1999 2:02:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Don:" T/A Chat 'n Chew " RE: QQQ - NDX-100 Index ...this ain't very scientific {grin} but, in the past I have noticed that when the NDX gets near the top of its apparent trading-range channel = TechSector "cycle", it tends to creep on upwards in a series 3-candlestick, "evening star" (or other, reversal) constructs that ultimately fail to become major down-waves. Folks who adopt a paranoid/adversarial market view might call this persistent betrayal of apparent reversal sentiment, "Bear Traps". A rationalist might conclude that different index sector/sub-sector components are peaking at different times, producing a series of stepwise, "evening stars" on the overall index chart. One of the things that characterizes these stepwise, failed reversal patterns is that mo goes flat; sto rolls around up there in the sky - and the index grinds forward. (if you don't have a momentum indicator on your chart, you can simulate one by using a very slow stochastic, say - 2x, 3x or, 4x your typical %K sto duration) Usually, NDX-100 tops out, and I see this pattern - during earnings churnings : one day MSFT is popping, and on another day, CSCO, etc. It is more uncommon to see this (right now) without news-driven, ballistic up-thrusts in the Tech bellwethers. However, we could say that two such 3-candle constructs with "evening star" aspects have already happened: 03/07/08-SEP; then, 09/10/13-SEP. imho, it would not be surprising to see it happen again: 14/15/16-SEP... tommorow, then, (or 15+16-SEP sum if the market is slow) may be some form of "spinning" or "shooting star" : yet another, stepwise ascent with (failed) reversal sentiment aspects. When my QQQ - qubes daily chart mo indicator goes flat, I revert to the 18d EMA - this is at ~121.7 right now (QQQ closed today at ~125.4) Should QQQ drop ~3.7 points, it would be one heluva downwave, for sure (^_^) But, so long as QQQ* CLOSE remains above its 18d EMA - we must continue to assume that the current, intermediate UpTrend remains intact. QQQ :* far-target = ~131 near-target = ~128 ...at 125.4 CLOSE today... horizontal support/resistance = ~123 18d EMA = ~121.7 = intermediate UpTrend fib at ~119.5 50d EMA = ~117.5 fib at ~115.25 near-support @ ~113.5 = YTD UpTrend area -Steve geocities.com