To: yard_man who wrote (61860 ) 9/14/1999 10:29:00 PM From: Terry Whitman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
Required reading for all Mythsters and Mythster wannabees: >There are many similarities between the stock market mania of the late 1920s and that of the late 1990s, but the critical difference is the unit of measurement itself. At the time of the 1929 crash and subsequent depression, stocks were priced in terms of a rock solid currency. They are now priced in terms of something that can be created in unlimited amounts at the whim of bureaucrats and politicians. When the US debt bubble begins to unravel, the Federal Reserve will provide whatever amount of money is necessary to prevent a sharp decline in asset prices and a severe recession. They can do this by monetising bank assets. Following the massive injection of liquidity during the latter part of 1998 and recent speeches by Alan Greenspan confirming the intention of the Fed to "respond to quickly declining asset prices", no-one should doubt that attempts will be made to expand the money supply during any debt or liquidity-based crisis. The only question is, will such measures succeed? After all, Japan is still mired in recession a decade after their debt bubble collapsed. Perhaps the "pushing on a string" analogy would apply? In our opinion, based on the complete absence of any restrictions on money creation, the US monetary authorities have the power to support asset prices and maintain liquidity. They have already demonstrated their willingness to use this power. Longer-term, the costs of excessive money creation come in the form of higher interest rates, reduced real economic growth, and increased unemployment. Short-term, a crisis can be avoided. In summary, today's monetary system is diametrically opposite to that which existed during the 1920s and 1930s, leading us to believe that this bull market will end in inflation, not deflation. <gold-eagle.com