To: donald sew who wrote (25860 ) 9/15/1999 7:39:00 AM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Don:" Yen = ~103 = Euro : USD "I agree with you that the HiTECHs are in an uptrend, so the question is whether the the NON-HiTECHs will pull the HiTECHs down or vice-versa? cycle (if not the chart ) is peaking right now.any (equity) market leadership - even the Techs, Don. We're focused on bonds - and when we do that, we obsess over "what purchasing mangers think" and "employment" and "producer/consumer prices" and other crap - things that have to do with the future cost of capital rather than Projected Earnings Growth .conversation ? "the carry trade ; ie., the JY99Z - USD:Yen futures. They can't short the Yen and buy TYX, (when the Yen is going up) if they have to pay back Yen that are worth more tomorrow than they are today. Lousy year for bonds, man, really one of the worst.forex is focused on the current account (ie., trade deficit) imbalance . Japanese exporters have to sell USD and/or our TYX to square their accounts in Yen terms back home.The way Im looking at the market is that the majority of the indicies and stocks are not in an uptrend, with the exception of the HiTECH/ENERGY indices/sectors. The majority of the market is either in a trading range or downtrend... fib construct between ~10,452 and ~11,327. The DOW is the easiest index chart to read, imho.dojis ... I suspect it is being "strangled", Don. It appears to be in a triangle construct bound by CLOSE 16-JULY and CLOSE 25-AUG on the top; then CLOSE 10-AUG and CLOSE 02-SEP on the bottom... we could break down from this thingy today; SPY would have to CLOSE above ~134 today for this triangle thingy to remain intact. OTOH the upside boundary of this triangle thingy is around ~136.5 today.
