To: valuehunter who wrote (11046 ) 9/15/1999 12:47:00 PM From: Carl R. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17679
What an odd post. It strikes me that the situation is exactly the reverse. If you go back and watch the original TVoW broadcast of Washington fireworks you will note that Gardy mentions a price of about $200 a month to underwrite a channel. At this price, surely the even the narrowest of channels can afford to have one, but such channels could never be profitable. By early this year the price was up to $2000-5000 per month. This change in pricing no doubt eliminated many of the 100 channels that were to be online by the end of the year. But the channels that were eliminated would never have been profitable, at least on their own. Gardy's view was that it was better to have many channels with a very narrow focus, even if they lost money, on the basis that people who came to watch those channels would stay and watch other channels. Did they? My guess is no. Maybe regular viewers of the cricket channel would tune in once to see the shipping channel, but unless the alternate channels were broad interest (such as the Right Channel), my guess is that the strategy was not working. Thus I see a clash between two perspectives. Gardy embraced the internut perspective, growth at all costs, take any and all channels even if they lose money in an attempt to achieve "virul" growth. Bramson's view is the old-line business perspective, don't undertake a venture unless you can see where the profit is coming from. In today's world Gardy's plan would have no doubt achieved a high valuation. Many of today's internuts reflect that strategy; growth matters, not profit. In the end though profit will matter, and the internut companies that can not earn a profit will crash and burn. Maybe the problem with Ampex's stock is that Bramson's desire for profits, even if it means slower growth, is out of fashion. Small investors and internut investors are looking for growth, not profit, and snapping up many an ill-conceived venture if they have dramatic growth. On the other hand, Bramson's internet initiative is too bold for conservative investors (and the balance sheet too risky), thus leaving Ampex in no man's land: too conservative for gunslingers, and too risky for conservative investors. Despite this, I understand what he is doing and why. If I were in his shoes I wouldn't have done the same things, but I can't say he is wrong. I would have viewed TV on the Web (and Reiter) as a cash-burning ventures that didn't fit what I was trying to do, but which fit nicely into what the gunslingers wanted. Accordingly I would have IPOd them and sold the overvalued shares as fast as possible so that I would have money to invest elsewhere. Instead, Bramson elected to try to fix TV on the Web to make it profitable. I bought a money-losing company once and tried to fix it; a few years later I realized that I would have been much better off to split it up and sell the parts. The way I see it, Bramson is trying to build a company with lasting value, that produces both profit and growth. I would have sold the broken parts to suckers, um er internet investors, and tried to turn a quick buck so as to shore up my weak balance sheet. Just two different perspectives.... Carl