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Technology Stocks : Xicor ? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (2550)	9/15/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: Ram Seetharaman	Respond to of 2920

Folks relish this! Sep 15, 1999 Congregation Swells for Semiconductors By James J. Cramer How many portfolio managers can you fit into the semiconductor stocks? After today, I would have to say all of them. We only have a couple of weeks left until the end of the quarter. The action in the semis on a down-120 Dow points day shows me that between now and the end of the quarter you are increasingly unlikely to see any sort of selloff in these names. In fact, if mutual fund history is any guide, every short-term decline in this group for the next two weeks will have to be bought. I know I sorely miss my Micron (NYSE:MU - news) . We sold it up four. Thought we had a good one going. Now it is up another five. We are down to tag-ends in our Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) . I want to rebuild that one. And what the heck, where did all of our Analog Devices (NYSE:ADI - news) and LSI (NYSE:LSI - news) go? In the odd world that is institutional investing, if you don't own some of these stocks at the end of the quarter, you are going to have to answer some tough questions. Whenever a group so outperforms its peers, whether it be biotech, or the Net, or oil service, you will have individuals, including trustees asking why you had nothing in a group that seemed so obvious to everyone, including themselves. That's why, when I was out of pocket after the close, I was gratified to hear that some people weren't too keen on Oracle's (Nasdaq:ORCL - news) numbers. My first reaction to Jeff Berkowitz, when he filled me in, was "Oh boy, another chance to scoop up some chips." Wall Street isn't like Hollywood or baseball. You can't overexpose yourself. You can start every game with the semis. Hey, maybe the Consumer Price Index will disappoint and I can get my Micron back! What a group!!

To: jeffbas who wrote (2550)	9/15/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 2920

Observation on short term trading of XICO: I anticipated that around $9 would be a short term top on XICO because that is the price I forgot to sell some at 2 years ago. I chose not to sell this time and gamble I could buy it back 2 points lower. It is because my forecast in the preceding post leads me to believe that we will eventually see perhaps $20 per share. At that price (on a cost basis of $2), I will realize 14.4 points on an 18 point gain after long term capital gains tax. If I trade at short term capital gains rates, I need 24 points gain to achieve the same result -- 6 points extra gain from trading. I am not good enough to predict that I can do that, or even make any gains from trading, as I am more likely than not to sell it and see something this volatile run another 5 points. I find the analysis of an ultimate target price much easier to deal with (and admittedly more likely to leave me married to the stock than a trader - which can be far more costly). For me, a more interesting strategy is to look at dips as an opportunity to buy a bit of extra stock to try to generate some trading gains on top of the stable core position. While today's high volume sell off might well be it, we are seasonally in a weaker time for the market and we might yet see $6, which would be a 40% retracement of the entire move: techstocks.com