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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (71961)	9/15/1999 1:39:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1574001

Charles, Re:"But, I would have to say both Intel and AMD will do whatever they can to keep the edge. We are talking about multi-billion dollar business with huge stakes here. How long they can keep it is anybody's guess. Whatever it is, I am pretty sure that in a short period of time (within 5 years if not less) a 20% or more of the low-end x86 CPUs will be served by TSMC/UMCs of the world. It could be VIA or Cyrix or Intel or someone else giving them the business." Well it'll sure be interesting as we get to o.1 micron. The low end will surely be an integrated CPU. If you look at where leading edge - wafer volumes from TSMC/UMC are going it is into PC chipsets and graphics chips and SRAMS. All these are likely to be sucked into a single piece of silicon in next 2-3 yrs. It can also be argued that this poses a clear threat to TSMC and UMC biz. as well if they are not competitive. It will certainly be an interesting couple of years. But as cyrix/rise/centaur have proven - its a tough business without some high end revenues to subsidize the low end. VIA may be a threat - but apparently the cyrix and winchip cores are so screwed up that they are relatively screwed. They are only just talking about 400-466Mhz PR ratings for Q4. I see a 500Mhz system as "low end by Q4 99" so these guys are a day late and a dollar short. I also suspect that VIA will not have a competitive integrated solution to compete with timna or whatever AMD comes out with by next year either. regards, Kash