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Technology Stocks : 2000: Y2K Civilized Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flatsville who wrote (584)	9/15/1999 8:26:00 PM
From: Jeff Mizer	Respond to of 662

British report on US-- not all that glowing and you know they glossed it up as much as they could. fco.gov.uk

To: flatsville who wrote (584)	9/15/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 662

I agree that the State Dept's avisory is practically worthless in present form. However, it was my contention that anything they say leaves them between the devil and the deep blue sea. There is just no "right" way of framing their statements given the relative lack of information coming out of Asia. The real fear that is tough to quantify is the breakdown in civil order that could result should the disturbances be more severe than anticipated (and there is no evidence that the power will go out in either Japan or S. Korea or other Asian nations, nor that it will stay on), the societal disruptions would be far worse and present a far more serious threat to US citizens overseas. What she stated was that she felt that Wall Street would have a better idea of the economic or financial impacts that Asian non-compliancy could create. I briefly met a gentleman from one of the intelligence agencies who apparently was researching Y2K, and some of the passing comments we shared were on the concerns about the deeper economic impacts we may face latter this fall. We seemed to share a similar belief that the likelihood was high for a repeat of another bout of Asian Contagion. So for the State department the issue is a difficult one. On one hand, as my contacts forcefully tell me, is that they have an obligation to keep US citizens informed. But then on the other hand, the statements that they make could put US citizens in danger if they result in a panic in those nations. Personally, there is no right or wrong answer in my opinion. I say that it's better to do as much as possible and keep quiet... and then deal with any disruptions that occur, AS THEY OCCUR. At this stage of the game, to be too forceful in our warnings could make the "cure" more deadly than the disease, that being Y2K vulnerabilities. And thus the emphasis that was supposed to be placed on how Asian nations were formulating contingency plans on a national level, which I've argued are ludicrous to begin with given the complexity of modern economies (how do you make a contingency plan for an entire economy when you don't have a logical basis of knowing what will or will not work??). The best thing they could do now is probably to psychologically condition their populations to deem Y2K as a challenge instead of the end of the world... Focusing on how people should be ready to endure disruptions and help to circumvent or overcome them, can go a long way to preventing an already bad situation from becoming worse. I know many of you would not agree with my opinion on this... but before you cast your stones at me.. try to walk in the shoes of policy makers for a bit. That's what I attempt to do. Regards, Ron