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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (25979)	9/15/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Matt, I also think that they will rally the market tomorrow to collect the put premiums. My guess is that Friday afternoon and Monday we will have a substantial sell-off. Nothing TA related just gut feeling. - the confirmation I am slow to position myself for that <GG> BWDIK Haim

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (25979)	9/15/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Just got home and saw the carnage. I don't have my data downloaded yet so I will need to see where we are in relation to trend lines and forks and I also would like to see what they did with teh OEX options since they could have sold calls during the morning up spike and closed puts before the tank started moving the Max pain area but working blind (now that I have all the disclaimers covered <g>) I would be careful playing for a bounce tomorrow. The easy violation of numerous intra day support lines today and the cascade style fall going into the close is a very very bad sign for anyone long. The amount of weakness to be able to allow that kind of drop is rare and present right now. I will put forth a bullish argument but I don't have much faith in it. When looking over the market internals, they looked worse on previous days than today as far as rate of change etc. Also, I look at individual stocks just snap shotting on YHOO, not my charts yet, and the damage was not that bad. Many of the nets are still above yesterday's open, telecom was not badly beaten as in the past etc. Now I only pulled up about 10 stocks so this is inno way a broad look as I will get that tonight when I do my charts but A/D was almost even and new lows versus new highs was not that bad considering the way the indexes look. Now I wouldn't go long unless I could babysit it and saw some bullish formations and anything is possible during expiration week but it will be a risky bet. Haim, I tend to agree with you that Monday could be ugly but if Max Pain is violated to the downside big this week, remember we talked a while back about the pattern on the follwing week when max pain is broken, the opposite reaction tends to happen. In other words, if we continue to drop, there will be a large payout on OEX expiration to the put holders. The big money realizing this will be shorting like crazy during the drop to hedge themselves. At some point they will have to cover these shorts to avoid being "over short" for next month and a covering rally could ensue. This bounce could be short lived but would hurt anyone betting too early. The bounce may be the time to initiate new shorts. Just a remibnder on the earlier discussion. Personally, I don't have a clue yet. Figures, I go back to work and you guys all start having fun. <ggg> EDIT - Just found this on the gold thread Investors also questioned the accuracy of today's report, saying it doesn't reflect the increasing costs of goods and services they're seeing around them. ``People are now questioning whether CPI is measuring things correctly,' said Patrice Milton, who helps invest $6 billion at Bradford & Marzec Inc. in Los Angeles and is poised to sell Treasuries on any rallies. She cited the fact that the report said housing prices rose only 0.2 percent in the month, while home resales are on pace to surpass last year's record.` quote.bloomberg.com. Good Luck, Lee

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (25979)	9/15/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Matt, I'll stick with my post from last night with a downward revision for the NDX. The NDX is sitting on a strong tine so a reversal tomorrow morning, and tomorrow. All three indices could be up strong. Message 11252157 Pegged the Dow pretty good if we are up tomorrow... BWDIK??? (This hurricaine business is getting old fast!!!! I'm just trying not to float away. We have a creek behind our house that is about 6 feet above normal and flowing very fast. It's within 20 feet of the house right now and it's not looking good. We really don't need another 10" of rain on top of the 10" we've had today from Floyd!!!) Regards, Chris