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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5240)	9/16/1999 8:37:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

Re: Estimated Figures Telecommunications Market Thread, Here are some figures pulled out of the Bloomberg article below. These should be of interest to those of us that invest in the telecommunications infrastructure market. MikeM(From Florida) ******************** - There is $1 trillion invested in legacy infrastructure - Current market for telecom equipment is $200 billion/yr - Broken into six categories --- Switches --- Wireless Equipment --- Transport Equipment --- Transmission Equipment --- Voice Processing Equipment --- Data Communications Equipment - Switching is $40 billion/yr, growth 5-10%/yr. - Wireless is $50 billion/yr, growth 20-25%/yr. - Transport&Transmission is $50 billion/yr, growth 20-25%/yr. - Voice is $20/billion/yr, no growth est. - Data is $40 billion/yr, growth 15%/yr. ***************** TELECOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT MARKET ``UNDERGOING TREMENDOUS FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE'** New Sutro Research Report Points Out SAN FRANCISCO--Aug. 31, 1999--"Fueled primarily by continued growth of the Internet and continued deregulation," the market for telecommunications equipment "is undergoing tremendous fundamental change," according to a newly issued research report from Sutro & Co. This rapid growth "has rendered some traditional telecommunications equipment obsolete," Sutro asserts in its Quarterly Telecommunications Review. Although telecommunications carriers are beginning to adopt next- generation technologies, they have more than $1 trillion invested in existing infrastructure, the Sutro report notes. Thus "the transition to new-generation networks will be a gradual migration occurring in multiple stages rather than a replacement of existing infrastructure," the report predicts. The Sutro analysts estimate that the total, worldwide market for telecommunications equipment is about $200 billion a year. This market includes six types of telecommunications products: switches, wireless equipment, transport and transmission equipment, voice-processing equipment and data-communications products. The worldwide market for switching equipment, which includes local exchange switches and tandem switches, is currently about $40 billion a year, and each segment is growing by about 5 percent to 10 percent annually, according to the Sutro report. Sales of wireless equipment, which includes wireless switches, are currently running at about $50 billion and are growing by 20 percent to 25 percent a year, the Sutro analysts estimate. The global market for transport and transmission equipment is now about $20 billion and is growing about 25 percent to 30 percent annually, analysts Houghton and Subrahmanyan estimate. Sales of voice-processing equipment are currently running at about $20 billion annually, according to the Sutro analysts. The data- communications equipment market, driven by an increase in data traffic of about 30 percent annually, is now about $40 billion a year and is growing about 15 percent annually, according to the Sutro report.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5240)	9/16/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: ynot	Respond to of 12823

gilder is not brilliant, imho regards, ynot ;)

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5240)	9/16/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Mike- Your thoughts parallel mine wrt. George Gilder. I believe he is better at the "techno-futurist" role rather than delving inro the business aspects. As for "T", I see from this mornings paper that they plan layoffs as they hunker down to fight in the LD cost battle. Did you catch that one ?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5240)	9/23/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: Dan B.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

<<Using the coaxial network to recapture local telephone revenues is a good way to pay for the $2 billion per year AT&T has to spend to upgrade to two-way HFC>> I'll note that with the existence of a company called Terayon(TERN), a Gilder paradigm pick, it is not necessary for cable operators to upgrade cable plant in order for them to offer broadband access service- at least not for those who haven't already upgraded. Dan B