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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2075)	9/16/1999 1:03:00 AM
From: borb	Respond to of 3902

Over Priced? Maybe in 1987. I am not sure now. Gas price is comparably high. Should we worry about inflation in US or Y2K in Japan? Maybe gold will become right place to hide.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2075)	9/22/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: Professor Dotcomm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

I think you hit the nail on the head. The recent fluctuations - and even perhaps most of the Nikkei strength this year has come from foreign investment - and this money is notoriously nervous of the exchange rate. I have calculated that on a given day a one yen change is equivalent to 250 points on the Nikkei - but the Topix may give another differential. Until retail consumer stocks take off the Nikkei will be a shuttlecock bouncing around on the Forex and on the fortunes of the Dow itself. Nevertheless, I am sticking by my forecast of 20,000 on the Nikkei by the next Japanese new year next May. As an afterthought, I do not think that an adverse exchange rate hits exporters for at least 12 months. On the contrary, it could actually help them as importers increase orders to 'lock in' margins.