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To: wily who wrote (48351)	9/16/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: DJBEINO	Respond to of 53903

''From a DRAM (dynamic random access memory) standpoint, we are at the bottom going up,'' said Rambus Chief Executive and President Geoff Tate. ''I think a lot is predicated on the PC business, and we've got this new model of people giving PCs away, which could be a bubble. But it doesn't matter if they give them away if demand is still strong and DRAM prices are going up.'' SG Cowen semiconductor analyst Min Pang said he foresees a three to four-year upturn. ''These things are not without their hiccups, but there is plenty of gas in the tank,'' he said. ''Typically, what you see in the early period of recovery are excessively high expectations (from investors) in comparison to earnings estimates. But estimates are still very low, and as estimates edge up, there will be more upside.'' He pointed out that the semiconductor industry is what enables technology as a whole to move forward, as faster, smaller and more efficient chips are developed. Such developments in computer chips allow for more powerful PCs and faster Internet connections, driving a new economy based on the Web. biz.yahoo.com

To: wily who wrote (48351)	9/16/1999 9:32:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Wily, the interesting thing about both pieces is they seem to reach somewhat similar conclusions. The Realworld guy is criticizing the reasoning of the ANAD guy, but nowhere do I see disagreement with his conclusions. Both seem to be saying that this is unsustainable and that prices will return to earth. IMHO, it's less of the much touted "supply shortage" finally arriving than a demand shock materializing. 1) normal seaonality 2) increased memory per box in the fastest growing segement of the PC market 3) "free-PC" craze 4) potential Y2k-related demand in non-US/European markets 5) the Hickey Theory that there may be abnormal Y2K-related inventory building 1 was a given 2 would be expected to hold (I don't see the majors moving down - which is why you have to give points to MU for pushing CPQ's hand, which may in turn have forced other hands. You may want to subtract some points for a company that knows its end demand so well that it is offering price incentives at the bottom of the trough and right before the start of what, if current trends continue, will have been in retrospect a quadrupling of prices in 3-4 months. But there's a feedback loop in there...) 3 Depends on how you define the segment, but we get the idea (don't really quite get the business model though). 4+5 are interesting. Who knows? Maybe "hold you nose and stay on top of pricing, but be wary of sell-off following earnings" still stands... ...if it ever stood in the first place <g> Good trading, Tom