To: Captain Jack who wrote (67695 ) 9/16/1999 6:51:00 PM From: hlpinout Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
Hiya Cap, More to come? From Dow Jones. -- September 16, 1999 12:44 PM Is Compaq Starting to Regain Momentum? By Monica Rivituso IT'S BEEN A long time coming. For the first time in months, Compaq Computer (CPQ) got a boost of confidence from someone on the Street. ABN AMRO's Jonathan Ross raised his rating to Outperform from Hold, and slapped $35 target price on the stock. Given the PC maker's tumultuous past six months, the upgrade offered investors a glimmer of hope today. Compaq shares rose nearly 3% at one point, amid a depressed PC sector. "It looks like there is new momentum," Ross says. This is saying quite a bit, considering the company's recent history. Rewind back to the beginning of the year. Analysts up and down the Street cut their earnings estimates after it appeared sales were slowing. Then in April, the PC maker reported disappointing first-quarter earnings and sales, blaming weak industry demand for its dismal results. Days later, Compaq's board of directors ousted CEO Eckhard Pfeiffer. CFO Earl Mason followed him out the door. And more housecleaning followed, all of which left Compaq struggling to simultaneously find a new CEO, reorganize the company and improve sales. So, with all this upheaval, what improvement does ABN AMRO's Ross see in Compaq now? He points to "booming" Internet sales that are giving the PC maker the ability to compete with direct-seller dynamos like Dell Computer (DELL) and Gateway (GTW). Compaq's renewed focus on the Internet has reportedly led to a rapid climb in consumer and small-business transactions, Ross said in a report. He pegs the current run rate for sales at $4 million a day, up from $1 million in May and $2.5 million in July. "Gains on the Internet cannot be ignored," he says. Ross also points to signs that sales are increasing in Compaq's line of Alpha servers. "Any signs of stabilizing there is a positive," he notes. And there are indications that the company's restructuring of sales in the channel (or retail sales) is on track. Even with the rise in Compaq's stock today, it still has a way to go. Shares of the PC maker have fallen nearly 50% since Jan. 20. Still, Ross points out that since April, the stock has found some support in the $22 to $25 range. Even though the "potentially disruptive and massive" restructuring of retail sales is underway, Ross said the expectations are low enough that the stock shouldn't take a nose dive. Meanwhile, he sees "considerable" upside potential. Still, he noted in his report that the onus still remains with Compaq and new CEO Michael Capellas to prove that progress in its restructuring translates to real earnings. And the company's not out of the woods yet. We still might see some "Keystone Cop"-style execution difficulties surface from time to time, according to Ross. In addition, Dell is still squeezing Compaq, and Hewlett-Packard (HWP) is aggressively targeting Compaq's enterprise customers. Then there are rising DRAM prices and a stronger-than-expected yen that could narrow profit margins, Ross said. "Despite these concerns, we are comfortable that having admirably weathered a number of severe body blows in recent months, Compaq's share price already reflects potential downside risk, as do consensus estimates for the quarter," Ross said. << BREAKING NEWS ARCHIVE