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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (26051)	9/16/1999 10:59:00 AM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

So where we going now, 1280?

To: Fun-da-Mental#1 who wrote (26051)	9/16/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

TALK FROM THE TRENCHES: WALL ST BAILS; WATCHING $/YEN NEW YORK (MktNews) - Treasuries started out little changed across the curve amid very light flows, but are finding a bid as short covering is the word of the day ahead of a possible early close and even thinner conditions. Sources say personnel on trading floors are more concerned about Hurricane Floyd than doing trades. Many New York players who take New Jersey transit, Metro North and the Long Island Rail Road are concerned that Floyd will affect their commute home and are making plans to leave work early. One senior salesman has rented a limo for his clients and friends and is planning to serve a keg of beer on the (probably very long) commute home! Weather officials expect Floyd to produce sustained winds of 45 mph with gusts potentially up to 70 mph by afternoon. The Northeast is expected to receive as much as 7 to 10 inches of rain in the next 24-hour period. The mayor of New York has asked businesses to do "staggered" employee releases today between noon and 3:00PM EDT. New York schools are closed and all non-emergency City employees will be released between noon and 3:00PM. Can an early bond market close be far behind? The Treasury market has traded in a tight range all week, never caring about global markets. But interest in the US$/Yen is heating up. Japan has dispatched Kuroda (Sakikabara's replacement) to the U.S. for talks. Prime Minister Obuchi says Japan will take "appropriate" measures to stem the yen's rise. The response from Washington has been lukewarm so far. But in the print press today, both the NY Times and the FT set out the case for $/Yen intervention. The last confirmed intervention by U.S. authorities was $833m versus Yen on June 17, 1998. Prior to that, the U.S. joined other central banks to intervene on eight separate occasions from March 3 to August 15, 1995. The average intervention on the part of the U.S. against Yen was just $375 million, though during some of the operations, the U.S. also operated in DM. Why the interest in the Yen? Foreigners own $1.250 trillion of Treasuries and a huge chunk of stocks, and are acquiring more all the time if the second quarter's record $80.7 billion current account gap, the broadest measure of international flows, is to be believed. Private and official overseas accounts sold Treasuries in 2Q, according to the data. If inflation picks up and causes these accounts to lose confidence in U.S. assets, the theory goes that a little intervention will be far less costly than the pain of plunging markets. Meantime, surf home safely! NOTE: Talk From the Trenches is a daily compendium of chatter from Treasury trading rooms offered as a gauge of the mood in the financial markets. It is not hard, verified news.