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To: marginmike who wrote (41442)	9/16/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

mm, bonds were near 10% and up from 7 in 1987. Dow pe was 24-25, now is 23(10700/460). The dow rallied as bonds weakened. if bonds were above 7 now, we'd be around 9000 on the dow I'd bet.

To: marginmike who wrote (41442)	9/16/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

MMike, in 1987 interest rates went up about 3% from August to end of September, while S&P climbed something like 10%... hard to recall exactly... I watched mortgage rates back then... in 1999 late April and early May rates went from 5.5% to 6.2% quickly... that hurt both Dow and Naz by late May rates have been stuck in the 5.8% to 6.15% range since May... meanwhile as rates quieted, the Dow went after new highs and so did Naz... in the last week or two, the weight of the USdollar (which doesnt seem to be able to stage a recovery) seems to be too much for stocks... we need foreign participation to sustain a move to new stock index highs very different stories between 1987 and 1999 / jim