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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (26155)	9/17/1999 5:31:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It's nice to know that someone else is foolish enough to be at this at this hour!! <g> BTW, you don't sound too bullish near term. Matt PS. Love your charts and your analysis. It's inspiring me to learn the candles.

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (26155)	9/22/1999 5:43:00 AM
From: Teresa Lo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Chickens Come Home?Morning Market SnapShot for Wednesday, September 22, 1999 The easiest piece of economic data to predict this year was yesterday morning's Trade Balance number, which was yet another record trade deficit. For months on end, it has made new record highs and yesterday's number was no surprise. The reaction of the market to the number surprised most but not readers of this column. Since early this summer, particularly in our August 20 Morning Market SnapShot, we have been writing about intelligentspeculator.com intermarket instability where the intricately laced forces were beginning to give, with the U.S Dollar having made a top on the weekly chart, putting upward pressure on interest rates and commodity prices. Now that the FOMC has raised rates twice, all eyes are on the lookout for inflation or other factors that could put further pressure U.S. interest rates to the upside. Over the past week, the Dollar has been under attack and the Yen has strengthened. The Bank of Japan unilaterally intervened unsuccessfully last week to sell down the Dollar and in a meeting overnight, Japanese central bankers decided not to ease interest rates in order to stem the flow of capital from the U.S. This meeting was deemed crucial to traders who had expected a move by the BOJ to ease and pave the way for coordinated intervention in the Dollar/Yen. It is now up to a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations Saturday in Washington to determine the Dollar's fate. Currency markets are now in full tilt turmoil and with days to go before the G7 meeting this weekend, currency speculators will be free to test the resolve of U.S. and Japanese central bankers and drive the Yen toward the 100 level. All this adds up to extreme volatility and instability. This is not good for U.S. equity markets that have been hovering in a trading range for more than six months. We have been looking for a catalyst to move the market out of this range, and we believe that the trade deficit number yesterday served to focus all of the market's anxiety to a point where an explosive move will be made right here. We have seen numerous comments made in the financial media about trading volume being light over the past several months, providing one excuse after the other to explain the lack of new buyers. Hopefully, those who have been asking the market to "turn up the volume" will not regret the ultimate direction when they get their wish shortly. The NASDAQ 100 index made a test of top on Monday on a narrow range day. Yesterday, it resolved down to form an evening star pattern on the test. For now we can assume that it's failed the test and if the NDX decisively breaks under the 20-day exponential moving average and trades back below the July high of 2450 or so, sellers should materialize quickly. The S&P 500 index also made an evening star pattern on the bounce to resistance at the 20-day EMA. 1300 will be the level to watch this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now at the bottom of the trading range, having encroached the trendline at 10,600. It must bounce and bounce now to save the day. Support below is in the 9,500 area. Finally, we have our market internals showing 277 new 52-week NYSE lows vs. 37 new highs, new lows outnumbering new highs by a 7.5:1 margin. If there ever was a time for buyers to show up and save the day, this is it. It's truly now or never. Charts specific to these comments have been posted to intelligentspeculator.com