To: SJS who wrote (32512 ) 9/19/1999 12:40:00 AM From: A. Edwards Respond to of 70976
Prudential Equity Research: AMAT:A VISIT WITH THE AUSTIN MANUFACTURING SITE - BUSINESS TRENDS ARE SOLID, RAISING PRICE TARGET TO $98 FROM $85 September 17, 1999 Analysts: John W. Pitzer (650) 320-1633 THE LEAN MANUFACTURING INITIATIVE - REVIEWING ITS IMPLICATIONS What is the lean manufacturing initiative? Began nearly two years ago, the lean manufacturing initiative was designed to re-vamp the manufacturing strategy at Applied Materials - to move away from discrete bay manufacturing towards a more modular flow manufacturing process. In a cyclical industry that demands some periods of significant production ramps and others of drastic cut-backs, the lean manufacturing initiative was a response to "feast and famine" cycles while maintaining a tight focus on cost, quality, speed and flexibility. The goal was to maintain the highest levels of profitability and flexibility at the Company without compromising quality and customer delivery schedules. Take a closer look at the numbers - they are impressive. Over the last two quarters, AMAT has grown revenue sequentially 50.5% and 28.3% respectively from $673 million in 4Q98 to $1.4 billion in 3Q99 (July), 108% growth. At the same time, the Company has grown its cash from $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion (35.3% growth) and has held inventories essentially flat from $556 million in 4Q98 to $575 million in 3Q99. As a result, AMAT has already eclipsed profitability metrics reached at the peak of the last cycle in 1Q98 (January). Gross and net margins for 3Q99 were 48.7% and 17.1% versus 48.1% and 15.1% in 1Q98 - and there are still efficiency gains possible as AMAT believes it can further reduce cycle times by approximately 40-50% over the next several years. We believe the key message for investors is: AMAT IS ENTERING THIS GROWTH CYCLE WITH THE ABILITY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PROFITABLE THAN IN PAST CYCLES. The addition of the efficiency gains from lean manufacturing should provide upside potential to calendar 2000 EPS estimates - as we believe that most models do not incorporate the full extent of these gains. Raising Price Target. We believe that as the street begins to recognize both the sustainability of the current demand trends (i.e. that we are in the midst of a multi-year cycle) and the positive implications of the Company's manufacturing strategy, Applied Materials' stock should support at least a market multiple on calendar 2000 EPS estimates. As a result, we are raising our price target on shares of Applied Material from $85 to $98 or 33 times our calendar 2000 EPS estimate of $2.96. Our new price target represents 20% appreciation from current levels.