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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (8700)	9/17/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

<Hopefully, the full [Greenspan] text will be available soon.> Here it is, along with a few other tidbits. Greenspan to say US banks ready for Y2K on Friday WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will try to assure Americans on Friday that U.S. banks are ready to cope with the effects of the year 2000 computer bug, known as Y2K, a Fed official said. Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Kelley said on Thursday that Greenspan would aim to do this in a speech on Friday before a conference on Y2K readiness held by the Fed and the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. ``I think Chairman Greenspan is going to reassure us all that we are in good shape for Y2K,' Kelley told reporters. He was speaking after a news conference by financial regulators on the readiness of financial institutions for the Year 2000 computer problem. biz.yahoo.com FRB: Federal Reserve Board Speech from 09/17/1999 Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan Before the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, Financial Sector Group, Year 2000 Summit, Washington, D.C. September 17, 1999 greenspun.com FDIC Chairman Tanoue speaks at Y2K Summit Remarks By Donna Tanoue Chairman Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Before A Year 2000 Summit Sponsored by The President's Council on Year 2000 Financial Sector Group Washington, D.C. September 17, 1999 "As of September 15, only 27 FDIC-insured financial institutions had Y2K supervisory rating of less than satisfactory. That is twenty seven out of the 10,273 banking and savings institutions that we insure." [This rating is primarly based on self-reported info from financial institutions. There are not enough trained auditors to verify actual status of these 10,273 financial institutions. But, the way FDIC presents this certainly sounds good, doesn't it?] greenspun.com FED'S Ferguson - Y2K Risk of Inventory Building still Open Question WASHINGTON, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Vice Chair-designate Roger Ferguson said on Friday the impact of the end-of-millennium computer bug would be considered by policymakers if it affected the Fed's long-term goals. Speaking to reporters at a conference by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, Ferguson also said it was not clear yet whether fears of the computer bug would prompt businesses into building inventories that could cause bottlenecks in the U.S. economy. ======================================================= The BIS (Bank for Int'l Settlements, Basel, Switzerland) is the central bank for all other central banks. Their Y2K view is not cheerful. In a fat report they say "some problems will be missed; new problems will be inadvertently introduced via the remediation process; even the best test programs may not detect all potential errors; uncertainty will remain up to & after Jan 1. In other words, it is inevitable there will be Y2K disruption, athough it's not possible to predict how serious or widespread this disruption will be." So there U have it. Central banks will go into 2000 not knowing if these systems are fixed. They know most are not fixed, worldwide. Compare BIS language to your local bank's PR rubbish. The BIS report goes on in great detail. If U read it all U lose any shred of optimism. The general threat is a breakdown of the inter-bank payments system. And once down, how to get it back up? BIS says: Y2K is "unlike any other disruption problem where identical backup sites can be activated. But any uncorrected Y2K problem is likely to affect both sites so the backup would not be a contingency." It gets worse. BIS, who says what neither private banks nor govt banks dare to say, reveals: "The inability of a major payment & settlement system to function smoothly, or have procedures for isolating problems, will intensify uncertainty/concern. In the extreme case, this could have repercussions throughout the global & domestic systems." Conclusion: the world economy is at acute risk. This is not some "doom/gloom" offbeat writer's view; it's the bluest of the blue chip banks. If your hair hasn't turned grey so far, read the following: The BIS advises banks to get the home phone numbers of regulators & govt officials so they can be contacted at night or on weekends to discuss the prudence of "closing markets & declaring an emergency financial bank holiday." This is scarier than any Y2K newsletter writer (except Gary North) has dared to say. And it's the real thing! U see, if banks go down, there can be no stock/bond/property mkt, or any other mkt, except black mkts of course, using cash. And all this is separate from equal risks from no power, oil, water, & no phones/fax/e-mail. U don't like this? Does that mean it can't happen? Or can it happen even if U don't like it? Try to separate wish from reality. Author Dr.Edward Yardeni, chief economist/global investmnt strategist at Deutsche Banc-Alex Brown has come back from Y2K retirement & says: "Y2K summary: Most have eyes wide shut....My prediction for a global recession in 2000, at 70% odds remains ... Stock mkt down 10-30% (that's 1-3000 DJIA pts). Recession major causes: breakdown in just-in-time manufacturing system, & in global oil industry. Y2K could cause another energy crisis." [...] Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net) greenspun.com Cheryl 105 Days until 2000