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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: drsvelte who wrote (26216)	9/17/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

drsevelte: I sent you a PM. Regards, LG

To: drsvelte who wrote (26216)	9/17/1999 10:38:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 99985

drsvelte: I have followed the person in question on another thread for a year. This person seeks attention, no matter what kind. Gary's post offered him what he was seeking. LG's approach is best: no posty, no kissy.... end of topic

To: drsvelte who wrote (26216)	9/17/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

urbansurvival.com Shepler Capital Management: Weekly Outlook for 9/20 - 9/24/99 DETERIORATING TAPE In our 9/13/99 commentary we stated: "Based on the fact the we are now in the window for our 9/14 +/- 2 trading day minor cycle high, we would expect that that market will experience a brief pullback at some point next week. If the market drops prior to Wednesday's CPI we would view that as a good short-term buying opportunity for a final push to new highs into month-end... Again, due to extreme over valuation, the risk level is high for long positions, so we must watch key indicators closely as we attempt to finesse the final weeks of this bull run. The McClellan Oscillator is one of those key indicators, and a drop below the zero line would be of concern, with a breakdown below -50 being a signal the the top is in." In our commentary at the end of August we suggested that the month of Septemer was very likely to disappoint both the "blow-off" bulls and the "crash" bears, and that instead September was likely to take the form of a contracting triangle "B" wave rally. We also said that this "B" was would create a "meat grinder" market that would chew up bears and bulls alike with a plethora of false breakouts and false breakdowns. So far, mid-way through the month of September this has indeed come to pass, with many analysts and technicians identifying the current pattern as a "contracting triangle" per our forecast. The question on every market watcher's mind is whether this choppy trading range will resolve to the upside or to the downside. In our beginning of month commentary we suggested that this trading range would likely last into late September and would resolve with a mini-crash or crash decline into mid to late October based on our cycle work. The extremely weak current market internals support this conclusion. For example, while the SPX successfully re-tested its 200 day moving average this week, NYSE cumulative volume dropped decisively below its 200 day moving average during this same period for the first time this year. The bull market needs postive net volume to survive, and this poor showing by cumulative volume is flashing a very big warning sign. Further technical deterioration was also seen by the McClellan Oscillator's close at -92 Thursday, below the neutral zone. And while Friday's rally temporarily repaired much of the technical damage (McClellan back in neutral zone at -45), with good price gains, strong volume, and decent breadth, the deterioration in this week's tape makes a convincing case for selling the next rally. Based on our cycles this short-term rally should last into 9/27 +/- 3 trading days, which is fast approaching and will be seen early next week. For some time now we have pinpointed this timeframe as a crucial turning point. So, we will be looking to employ bearish strategies (short selling, put buying) during this 9/22-9/30 time period. Short-term, the market had reached an oversold condition that will likley result in some further short-term rally. We look for the current bounce to find resistance first in the 1340-1350 SPX area. If this area is surmounted, then a rally to 1380-1390 SPX would be the next target, with a double top at 1400-1420 an outside possibility. In short, the chance for any significant new highs for the SPX appears to be gone at least until after a more severe sell-off occurs into the 10/19 +/- 3 trading day timeframe. While the Dow and Nasdaq will likely make new highs between now and month-end, we would look to sell into those rallies, as we expect an imminent breakdown below the 8/10 low into October. Our initial downside target is 1220-1180 SPX.