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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (77632)9/17/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Well, I must admit I am not seeing the vision from AOL that is coming from yahoo for example. Look at yahoo's entry into enterprise infrastructure, now doing some home finance billpay stuff and they have free domain parking, movies, greeting cards, football, messenger (which competes with AOL instant messenger)... yahoo is a content machine.

I said on another thread I think Andreesen (who has since left AOL, he was a founder of nscp) was more of a tools guy and lacked in the content area. That CTO office needs to be a visionary and I don't think he really had content vision... there was no reason Nscp couldn't have become what yahoo was from day one after all.

So, my point is I don't think it is just the msft free ISP news that is dragging on AOL - I think it is the realization that some of the AOL content train is a little lagging relative to yahoo... and the messenger really sealed it in some ways, since AOL messenger was pretty popular and here comes yahoo knocking it off.

Now, having said that, I would hold AOL here and not sell. I think it will rise and and do so quicker than yahoo. These are all temporary blips and I like the alliance with Sun anyway. In fact I'm thinking of buying some AOL calls.



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (77632)9/18/1999 3:00:00 AM
From: Olu Emuleomo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>So why is the market beating up AOL? <<

Not because of MSFT, I assure you! MSN is not growing at all!
They still have 2 million users.
Even if MSFT makes access free, it will bomb!
Why? Because nobody will be able to get on.
They will have busy lines from here to wazoo and people will
give up and go back to their old ISPs for superior service and some current MSN users will defect!
I *still* pay AOL $4.95/month despite the fact that I have a cable modem.
Why?
1) As a backup ISP in case my cable is out!
2) Instant messaging!
3) I can reach AOL as a local call from almost anywhere in the country (that's how I browse the net when i'm out of the country!)

I think AOL is falling because its growth is slowing
Could be the law of large numbers.
Could also be due to the fact that ISPs are now a commodity. Witness how DELL, GTW etc... are giving away net access when you purchase their computer. QWST/MCI etc.. are bundling net access with their phone service for a flat fee.

However, I guess 'value' investors will step up at 75. That's where I see the low for AOL.

--Olu E.



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (77632)9/18/1999 10:10:00 AM
From: Victor Lazlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
<<So why is the market beating up AOL? >>

Glenn maybe I'm whacked out on this, but i think that on a somewhat subconscious level, many investors view aol, a money-making company, as currently "being what it is going to be"- it has basically achieved the bulk of its strategy, and from here on it will simply keep growing and add features and alliances incrementally to try to stave off competitors. (And it may be more prone to competitors than, say ebay, which is also now "what it is going to be" but which is also clearly the gorrilla of auctions, hence less competition-prone.)

On the other hand, I think many investors still see a co like amzn as being in the development stage with at least another couple of years or so before its full potential is in view. (Again, this is not my view, but my view of the market's view.) And in net investing, the unkown of the future (amzn) is more dazzling than the very successful fulfillment of a bus strategy (aol).

Other "minor" negs for aol- lack of an impressive broadband alliance and comparatively large float.

Victor