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To: SMALL FRY who wrote (61907)	9/18/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

AVS-Brandy here is more info, some excerpts from the SSB note which caused the havoc on Friday <<--SUMMARY:--Aviation Sales Company--Emerging Growth * Recent discussions with management lead us to believe that our profit estimate for 3Q99 of $0.71 per share could be negatively impacted by continued costs associated with the delayed lease and/or sale of the recently renovated A-300 aircraft. * In addition, the expansion in AVS' maintenance, repair and overhaul operations may have incurred larger than anticipated initial start-up expenses. * While we are not lowering our estimates at this time, we expect to have more clarity on the potential earnings impact of these two issues by the end of next week. * We maintain our 1-H rating and our $54 price target.... The momentum in Aviation Sales' core parts redistribution business remains quite strong and the company's maintenance, repair and overhaul (MR&O) business remains robust with a solid pipeline. However, recent discussions with management raise concern about whether AVS is operating on-track to deliver our $0.71 earning per share estimate for the third quarter versus the $0.63 reported last year. Two non-core issues may lower reported results. First, the recent expansions in its MR&O operations may have incurred larger than expected initial start-up expenses. While we have factored higher start-up costs into our projections, these expenses may have exceeded our prior estimates. Second, we surmise that the company may be experiencing delays in the lease or sale of its five Airbus A-300 aircraft. As of today (September 16), the company has only recently leased one of these aircraft. We assumed two sale/leases by the end of the third quarter. The failure to execute a lease/sale of these refurbished aircraft has two financial implications. First, revenues of $200,000-$250,000/month per leased aircraft will be lost. Second, the cost of higher inventories must be absorbed. While we are not lowering our estimates at this time, we expect to have more clarity on the potential earnings impact of these two issues by the end of next week. >>

To: SMALL FRY who wrote (61907)	9/18/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

Greenspan from the wash post <<Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that he isn't very worried about technical breakdowns that might occur because of possible "Y2K" year-end computer glitches. What does give him pause is "the response of businesses and households to unwarranted fears of serious disruptions." "It is the economic effects of their endeavoring to adjust to the century date change in the next few months that I see as replacing technical concerns as our major challenge," Greenspan told a meeting of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, held to publicize the readiness of most public and private institutions to deal with the Y2K problem. Greenspan has recently made a series of similar public comments seeking to allay concerns about possible financial-system turmoil due to the Y2K bug, noting that such anxieties may cause more problems than any computer foul-ups. The Y2K problem stems from the fact that many older computers, unless they are modified, will treat the new year as 1900 rather than 2000 when their internal calendars click from "99" to "00." As a result, some computers could fail. But Greenspan, reiterating earlier statements, said yesterday that all but a few financial institutions are ready for the new year. "While it is easy to obsess about the few institutions in our society that may not be ready, let us not lose sight of the fact that the overwhelming majority of us are not only prepared, but have contingency plans to deal with breakdowns," he said. The Fed itself has taken many such steps, Greenspan noted.>> washingtonpost.com