Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (26224)	9/18/1999 12:00:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

Dear LG, (danger! long post ahead...:) Regarding the "Bull vs. Bear" bias of this thread... I'm currently bearish. I was bullish for years. I was bullish because that "made the most sense" to me. How was that "sense" created and fostered? By a preponderance of facts and opinions that I found persuasive. I long ago realized both Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis could be used to help predict future prices -- as could the state of the economy in the world, U.S., and the state of various industries and sub-sectors of the economy. In other words, <everything helps> when trying to "get a read" on where prices are going in the future. The problem, of course, with considering everything is determining "how to weight" all that information. Not being the brightest bulb <g> of them all, and not having the depth of understanding (or mere conviction?) to use only one set of indicators, I did what seemed most reasonable to me. It was this: whenever I considered starting a long or short position, I drew up a list -- two lists, actually: "why it should go up," and "why it should go down." Any "reasons" whatsoever could make the list: from barely defensible generalities to TA wedges, FA numbers, sector changes -- anything. When the lists were made, it was usually simple to see if a position would be a "no-brainer" or not. If it was a no-brainer, I passed (and still pass..:) Currently, I find the "bear case" overwhelming convincing. The "list items" that convince me of that can be found damn near everywhere, and are well expressed here by Heinz and others. But, like a good Jesuit, I'd love to see the other side (the "bull case") wonderfully and convincingly argued. The only Bull reasons I can find, though, are "doesn't matter" arguments; i.e. the AD line doesn't matter, valuations don't matter, rates don't matter, oil prices don't matter, flat revenues don't matter, y2k doesn't matter, ya da ya da ya da :) Silliest of all, of course, is "it'll keep going up because it <has> been going up." Uh huh. :) As a previous Reuters article noted, one research firm concluded that "the average stock in its 7,736-stock data base has fallen nearly 20 percent since April 1998." So I'm a bear, for now, and have my money where my maw-like omniverous mouth is. If you Bulls are cranky with my "bias" and that of other bearish posters here, make your case!! I'd love to hear it! doug