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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: red_dog who wrote (61918)	9/19/1999 7:20:00 AM
From: lee kramer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

I love gamblers. My best friend is a retired big-time bookmaker. Another close friend makes a very comfortable living as a professional gambler. Gamblers are interesting, colorful characters. If I ever got stranded on a deserted island in the South Pacific and had to choose between Susan Sarandon or a gambler for companionship I'd take the gambler every time; unless Susan was a gambler. They've always got a story to tell; a horse that got nosed at the wire that cost 'em a $5,000 trifecta or a last-second buzzer-beating three pointer that blew a three-team parlay. And they're always on the prowl for inside information that'll give 'em an edge in their quest for the Big Score: an NFL quarterback with a bum passing shoulder or a bagged horse race. They NEED an edge because most gamblers are terrible when it comes to determining correct odds, assessing probabilities and money-management. If you've got a secret yen to become a gambler, take the test below. If you're already a gambler, take the test below. And if you're a professional-gambler, someone who can comfortably say to his bookmaker "Gimme the Celts and the Knicks on a two team tease for a dime", ($1,000) take the test below. I'll lay 7 to 5 it'll surprise you. 1. The "vig" or "juice" you pay a bookmaker when you bet on a football or basketball game is 5%...7 1/2%...10%....12%? Answer: The bookmaker gets a flat 10% of what you bet, but only on LOSING bets. If your team wins, there's no "vig". 2. The odds against hitting a 4-digit daily lottery number are: 1,000 to 1...2,500 to 1...5,000 to 1...9,999 to 1...12,000 to 1? Answer: The true odds are 9,999 to 1 (10x10x10x10-1). Because the average payoff is in the neighborhood of $4,000 this is an abysmal bet...best left to chronic-droolers, fruitcakes who do the "wave" at baseball games and goobers who clog up the lines at convenience stores when you're trying to buy a loaf of bread or a quart of milk. 3. You watch a coin being tossed by your no good brother-in-law. It comes up "heads" 25 times in a row. What's the probability that the coin will come up "head" on the 26th toss? 25%...50%...52.5%...100%? Answer: Any coin that comes up "heads" 25 consecutive times is a "loaded" or "unfair" coin. The odds against 25 consecutive "heads" are greater than 33 million to 1 (1/2x1/2x1/2...25 times). If the coin was "honest" the probability would be 50% on the 26th toss. 4. What is the probability that at least one "head" appears in two tosses of an "honest" coin? 25%...50%...75%...100%? Answer: There are 4 possible outcomes when a coin is tossed twice; heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-tails, tails heads. Three of the four include a head". The probability is 75% that a head will appear. 5. You like the Colts getting 4 points against the Patriots. You like the NY Jets getting 4 against Buffalo. You call your bookmaker and bet a 2-team "tease". How many extra points do you get on the Colts and the Jets? 3...5...6...7? Answer: You get an additional 6 points per team, but there's a "wrinkle" here. With a 2-team tease you must win both games to collect. If either game ends in a tie (with the points) you lose the bet. And though you get 6 points, you're really only getting 5 because of the "ties lose" factor. My bookmaker friend loved to take teases; he said that over the years 70-75% of all tease bets lose. 6. The "best" number of football games to bet on a weekend are; 1...3...5...10? Answer: Because you've got the "spreads" to contend with, the more games you bet the greater your chance of doing no better than 50-50. And that's no good, because the "vig" you pay your bookmaker on all losing bets will eat into your capital. Choose ONE game that you like, and bet that game. 7. What's the best sport to bet on? Pro-football, college football, pro-basketball, college basketball, baseball? Answer: Baseball, hands down. With football and basketball you have to beat the spreads. With baseball there are no spreads...only odds. You like Pedro Martinez against Detroit? You may have to put up $250 to win $100. But the probability of Martinez beating Detroit is far greater than the 5 to 2 odds you're giving. Many bookmakers refuse to take action on baseball, because the smart bettors beat 'em too often. So how'd you do? If you got three right your game is bingo, mah-jong or "go-fish" with your 7-year old neice. If you got five right you're probably a "player" who loses a bit, maybe a "big" bit more than you win. If you got 'em all right you may be part of the 5-7% of all gamblers who turn a consistent profit. But I wouldn't bet on it. (Lee)