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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6532)	9/18/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

I now have information about Oracle's push into front office softare that I wish I had been able to document in time to include in yesterday's front office write-up. I had mentioned this earlier in the week but just now got the documentation that separates it from cybersapce rumor. The info is in an article published at Yahoo!. Too bad I lost the URL. In the previous quarter Oracle reported $44 million in CRM sales. In their most recent quarter they reported $31 million. It's going the wrong direction. And there is a lot being written in published articles that many analysts think those numbers are being reported much higher than they really are. When you sell bundled software, allocating the price for each part of the bundle is purely an accounting activity that can radically skew the numbers. Analysts think Oracle is doing that to make their CRM growth appear stronger than it really is. I want to make it clear that I'm not bashing Oracle or being biased toward my investment in Siebel. The reason it's important to watch this information as it unfolds is because it is symptomatic of the ERP players' ability to invade the front office software market. --Mike Buckley

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6532)	9/18/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Glenda King	Respond to of 54805

Mike, <<<Wow! I just stumbled on some Gemstar information I had not been aware of. I'm sure Stew is and will probably justifiably remind me of when he told me about it. :)>>> Thanks very much...I've been doing DD on this one...nibbling as I go. After seeing this I may have to take a couple of big bites.<g> Glenda

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6532)	9/18/1999 8:54:00 PM
From: uel_Dave	Respond to of 54805

More Gemstar information for your DD work: Mike, I have copied this information regarding Gemstar from the Globe and Mail Investor website. globeinvestor.com enter GMST in to symbol box and this will get you the info as indicated below. Some of it is old, but it gives you the jest of how big Gemstar was growing according to BancBoston Robertson Stephens GEMSTAR INTL. Gemstar International Group Limited develops, markets and licenses proprietary technologies and systems aimed at making technology user-friendly for consumers. The Company's VCR Plus+ instant programming system is now a world standard for VCR programming. VCR Plus+ allows a user to record a television program simply by entering a number - the PlusCode number printed in television program guides. Industry: Industrial Products (Electrical & Electronic) Symbol: GMST Exchange(s): NASDAQ Find Out More ANNUAL FINANCIALS Date of Balance Sheet 31-MAR-1998 12 Months,US$ 31-MAR-1997 12 Months,US$ 31-MAR-1996 12 Months,US$ 3Yr. Growth Total Revenue ($000): 126,550 71,120 53,440 N/A Earnings before Interest & Tax ($000): N/A 26,450 N/A N/A Profit/Loss ($000): 50,420 18,080 16,080 N/A Earnings per Share: .53 .27 .26 N/A Total Assets ($000): 186,070 169,160 N/A N/A Dividends Per Share .00 .00 .00 Return on Com. Equity: 51.42 N/A N/A Employees: N/A N/A N/A ----------- BancBoston Robertson Stephens Reiterates Strong Buy Rating onGMST 11:16 EDT Monday, June 21, 1999 BancBoston Robertson Stephens Internet analyst Michael Graham and managing director and senior Internet analyst Keith E. Benjamin today reiterated their Strong Buy rating on Gemstar International (Nasdaq: GMST). Gemstar is a leading developer of proprietary technologies that simplify and enhance consumers' television viewing experience. "We are reiterating our Strong Buy rating on Gemstar, as we believe there is potential for more good news ahead," said Graham and Benjamin. "Our checks imply that the pace of television sets being shipped with the advertising-capable guide, Guide Plus, is at or ahead of schedule." "In addition, we like the risk/reward profile of the stock, with advertising revenue creating the potential for 5 to 10 times upside to our estimates, while the company's licensing business provides some downside protection," said Graham and Benjamin. Regards, Dave

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6532)	9/19/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: NY Stew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Wow! I just stumbled on some Gemstar information I had not been aware of. Mike, I would recommend the Stephens' initial report at the same site you have linked dated 6/23/99. It is long at 38 pages but a primer for anyone interested in Gemstar. It's a short report about the impact of the deal for Sony to sell 3 million set-top boxes to Cablevision. I knew Sony has a deal to put Gemstar's program guides in their set-top boxes at $10 a box. What I learn from this report is that apparently they pay Gemstar $10 per box even if Sony uses someone else's program guide. This is no different than with DirecTV. Gemstar receives a $10 per unit fee from their OEMS. The application revs are subject to further negotiation. This is the hybrid beast of past discussion. The enabling lock should draw the attention of the Gorilla Game followers. Recent comments from TV Guide have almost admitted such but I am equally suspicious of words. I trust little that I cannot touch with my own hands. Nonetheless, I fail to see another company with such a risk/reward ratio. This wager does not consider the V-Chip Plus technology to which Gemstar was awarded a worldwide patent on 9/2/99 above and beyond the US patent previously issued. Stew

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6532)	9/19/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike......intersection of Sony/Gemstar/....& Rambus? Wow! I just stumbled on some Gemstar information I had not been aware of. I'm sure Stew is and will probably justifiably remind me of when he told me about it. :) stephens.com It's a short report about the impact of the deal for Sony to sell 3 million set-top boxes to Cablevision. I knew Sony has a deal to put Gemstar's program guides in their set-top boxes at $10 a box. I had mentioned earlier "The battle for Home dominance among the PC/STB/Video game manufacturers continues." Message 11235213. This week, it occured to me that Sony makes PCs, Playstation IIs (future electronic centers), TVs, and now Set Top Boxes. Since each of these is grabbing for family room "eyeballs", Sony seems well positioned. The fact that it contracts with Gemstar would seem to position Gemstar well (yes, I realize that Gemstar has many many other contracts as well). I like the idea of Gemstar as a portal, with B2C commerce possibilities and have a small starter position. The fact that Sony chose Rambus DRAM for its next generation video game machine, raises titillating but unsubstantiated hopes of seeing Rambus in High Definition Sony TVs, Set Top Boxes, etc. (my non-techie view is that set top boxes sound simple, so I wouldn't expect high-end DRAM like DRDRAM to appear there for now). Also, Fred Manzo's piece on Q and how enlarging bandwidth always eventually wins converges with Rambus DRAM.....DRDRAM is all about greater bandwidth amongst DRAM options. stan